Tweet counts and analysis for Wednesday, May 19th.

UPDATED Twitter Watch: Both Openers Pick Up The Pace

on May 19, 2010 by Alex Edghill
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Wednesday Evening Update: Both openers have picked up steam this evening: Shrek Forever After has risen from 4.9% market share to 5.3% today so far, while MacGruber has risen from 3.1% to 4.3%. Still less than stellar overall numbers for both but the day expansion has been impressive nontheless.

Wednesday Morning Update: Shrek Forever After scored 1,939 tweets on Tuesday, down slightly from 2,025 tweets the day before. Its market share remained unchanged, coming in at of 4.9%. Its positive percentage for the day was down slightly to 24.29% (down from 25.48% Monday), while its negative percentage was virtually the same at 3.75% (up from 3.65%. Not saying that tweet dips from Monday to Tuesday are a kiss of death, I've seen it happen 9 times in 90 films, and with some very notable release that performed well such as The Book Of Eli and Iron Man 2. However, the difference usually is that this occurs when a large external event influences the Monday number significantly such as a premiere. In terms of comparisons, A Christmas Carol had 1,110 tweets on its Tuesday before release, Alvin And The Chipmunks had 1,821 and How To Train Your Dragon had 1,701. At 4,000 tweets for the week Shrek is still in rarefied air for its genre which will no doubt secure a sizeable opening. It still should be on course for ~11,000 tweets for the week, and considering a ratio of around 400 (I've dropped it slightly to account for missed tweets), high twenty millions appears likely for Friday. 

MacGruber on the other hand was smoking yesterday as it jumped 66% to 1,217 tweets, up from 733 tweets on Monday. This gave it a market share of 3.1%, up from 1.8% yesterday. Its tweet quality plunged a bit as it came in with 20.54% positive (down from 24.15%) and 7.23% negative (up from 6.82%). Nothing overly alarming, especially considering the large percentage jumps between days. In terms of comparisons, Hot Tub Time Machine 1,744 tweets its Tuesday before release. A much better showing from the film but it is still lagging a ways behind Hot Tub. I can understand its ratio coming in slightly under the aforementioned film since MGM was actively plugging it on Twitter for weeks before release, but only by a few hundred at most. Its core demographic will be young males, one of the strongest for Twitter. As it stands 5,000 tweets look like the upper limit for the week, with an outside shot at 5,500. With an expected ratio of ~1,400 it appears to be on course for low double digits for the weekend.

Check back later today to see the official BoxOffice.com predictions and tomorrow to see the Wednesday numbers and updated projections. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check our methodology page for information about the project and historic data.

Tags: MacGruber, Shrek Forever After
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