Long Range Forecast: 'Oz: The Great and Powerful', 'Admission', & 'Dead Man Down'

on January 12, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
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mar8.pngOur Long Range Forecast this week has been updated with three new wide releases scheduled to open on Friday, March 8: Admission, Dead Man Down and Oz: The Great and Powerful.

Oz: The Great and Powerful

PROS:

- Disney is closely following the template the studio used to achieve great box office success with Alice in Wonderland back in March 2010.
- With a PG rating and so little for family audiences in January and February, it should attract family audiences in big numbers.
- With Sam Raimi as director and James Franco and Mila Kunis as leads, the film will also have a good chance of appealing beyond family audiences.
- In recent years March has become a stronger time of year to release event films.

CONS:

- While Alice in Wonderland generated blockbuster business at the box office, it hasn't been remembered all that fondly afterwards. That could brush off on Oz.
- By aiming for a younger and hipper feel, the film could turn off older fans of the Oz novels and 1939 film.

Admission

PROS:

- Tina Fey hasn't been in many films, but Baby Mama and Date Night both had very solid box office performances.
- The combination of Tina Fey and Paul Rudd could help the film appeal to date night audiences.
- The film could have a good chance of holding up well given the past box office history of both Fey and Rudd.

CONS:

- Opening against Oz: The Great and Powerful will be no easy task.
- As a Focus release, likely won't receive an ultra-wide opening weekend location count.

Dead Man Down

PROS:

- The re-teaming of Noomi Rapace and director Niels Arden Oplev could draw in fans of the original Girl With the Dragon Tattoo series.

CONS:

- Colin Farrell has a hit and miss history at the box office.
- Genre films with less mainstream appeal are typically tough sells; Killing Them Softly being a very recent example.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Broken City, Mama, The Last Stand, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Movie 43 and Parker.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Dead Man Down Mar 8, 2013 FilmDistrict
$9,000,000 $25,000,000
Admission Mar 8, 2013 Focus
$15,000,000 $50,000,000
Oz: The Great and Powerful Mar 8, 2013 Disney
$55,000,000 $160,000,000
Phantom (2013) Mar 1, 2013 RCR Media Group
$5,000,000 $13,000,000
The Last Exorcism Part II Mar 1, 2013 CBS Films
$11,000,000 $23,000,000
Jack the Giant Slayer Mar 1, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$23,000,000 $60,000,000
21 And Over Mar 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$15,000,000 $45,000,000
Dark Skies Feb 22, 2013 Weinstein / Dimension
$10,000,000 $23,000,000
Snitch (2013) Feb 22, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$13,000,000 $35,000,000
A Good Day to Die Hard Feb 14, 2013 Fox
$47,000,000* $125,000,000
Safe Haven Feb 14, 2013 Relativity Media
$20,000,000* $52,000,000
Escape From Planet Earth Feb 14, 2013 Weinstein Company
$13,000,000* $35,000,000
Beautiful Creatures (2013) Feb 14, 2013 Warner Bros.
$21,000,000* $57,000,000
Side Effects (2013) Feb 8, 2013 Open Road
$21,000,000 $65,000,000
Identity Thief Feb 8, 2013 Universal
$19,000,000 $62,000,000
Warm Bodies Feb 1, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$19,000,000 $50,000,000
Bullet to the Head Feb 1, 2013 Warner Bros.
$8,000,000 $20,000,000
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters Jan 25, 2013 Paramount
$15,000,000 $35,000,000
Movie 43 Jan 25, 2013 Relativity Media
$12,000,000 $32,000,000
Parker Jan 25, 2013 FilmDistrict
$9,000,000 $25,000,000
The Last Stand Jan 18, 2013 Lionsgate
$14,000,000* $30,000,000
Mama Jan 18, 2013 Universal
$19,000,000* $42,000,000
Broken City Jan 18, 2013 Fox
$18,000,000* $40,000,000

* = Four-day weekend (Friday-Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Admission, Dead Man Down, Oz: The Great and Powerful
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