Our Long Range Forecast this week has been updated with three new wide releases scheduled to open on Friday, March 8: Admission, Dead Man Down and Oz: The Great and Powerful.
Oz: The Great and Powerful
- Disney is closely following the template the studio used to achieve great box office success with Alice in Wonderland back in March 2010.
- With a PG rating and so little for family audiences in January and February, it should attract family audiences in big numbers.
- With Sam Raimi as director and James Franco and Mila Kunis as leads, the film will also have a good chance of appealing beyond family audiences.
- In recent years March has become a stronger time of year to release event films.
- While Alice in Wonderland generated blockbuster business at the box office, it hasn't been remembered all that fondly afterwards. That could brush off on Oz.
- By aiming for a younger and hipper feel, the film could turn off older fans of the Oz novels and 1939 film.
- Tina Fey hasn't been in many films, but Baby Mama and Date Night both had very solid box office performances.
- The combination of Tina Fey and Paul Rudd could help the film appeal to date night audiences.
- The film could have a good chance of holding up well given the past box office history of both Fey and Rudd.
- Opening against Oz: The Great and Powerful will be no easy task.
- As a Focus release, likely won't receive an ultra-wide opening weekend location count.
Dead Man Down
- The re-teaming of Noomi Rapace and director Niels Arden Oplev could draw in fans of the original Girl With the Dragon Tattoo series.
- Colin Farrell has a hit and miss history at the box office.
- Genre films with less mainstream appeal are typically tough sells; Killing Them Softly being a very recent example.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Broken City, Mama, The Last Stand, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Movie 43 and Parker.
Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Dead Man Down||Mar 8, 2013||FilmDistrict
|Admission||Mar 8, 2013||Focus
|Oz: The Great and Powerful||Mar 8, 2013||Disney
|Phantom (2013)||Mar 1, 2013||RCR Media Group
|The Last Exorcism Part II||Mar 1, 2013||CBS Films
|Jack the Giant Slayer||Mar 1, 2013||Warner Bros. / New Line
|21 And Over||Mar 1, 2013||Relativity Media
|Dark Skies||Feb 22, 2013||Weinstein / Dimension
|Snitch (2013)||Feb 22, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|A Good Day to Die Hard||Feb 14, 2013||Fox
|Safe Haven||Feb 14, 2013||Relativity Media
|Escape From Planet Earth||Feb 14, 2013||Weinstein Company
|Beautiful Creatures (2013)||Feb 14, 2013||Warner Bros.
|Side Effects (2013)||Feb 8, 2013||Open Road
|Identity Thief||Feb 8, 2013||Universal
|Warm Bodies||Feb 1, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|Bullet to the Head||Feb 1, 2013||Warner Bros.
|Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters||Jan 25, 2013||Paramount
|Movie 43||Jan 25, 2013||Relativity Media
|Parker||Jan 25, 2013||FilmDistrict
|The Last Stand||Jan 18, 2013||Lionsgate
|Mama||Jan 18, 2013||Universal
|Broken City||Jan 18, 2013||Fox
* = Four-day weekend (Friday-Monday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.