Three films have been added to our Long Range Forecast this weekend: G.I. Joe: Retaliation, The Host and Tyler Perry's Temptation. All three films are scheduled to debut on Friday, March 29.
G.I. Joe: Retaliation
PROS:
- The added presence of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (who will be attracting extra attention at the time for his WrestleMania appearance) and Bruce Willis within the cast.
- Channing Tatum is a bigger draw now than he was for the first film back in 2009.
- The shift in tone from the first film might attract older action fans and widen the demographic appeal.
- Will have a 3D boost that G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra didn't have.
CONS:
- Easter isn't the easiest weekend to open a film (only two films have ever opened with more than $40 million on Easter weekend) and competition will be especially fierce this Easter.
- The last-minute delay of the film by nearly a year may have dampened the previous enthusiasm levels that existed last year.
- While not universally hated, the first film isn't something that most have clamored for a sequel to.
- The extent of Channing Tatum's role in this sequel still seems to be up in the air.
The Host
PROS:
- Adaptations of young-adult fiction remain safe bets at the box office.
- Stephanie Meyer's Twilight follow-up is sure to draw media attention, though whether or not her name draws in Twilight fans to a non-Twilight film remains to be seen.
- Saoirse Ronan already has a following after her performances in Atonement, The Lovely Bones and Hanna.
CONS:
- As mentioned, opening on Easter weekend isn't easy and this year will be especially crowded.
- Based on anticipation levels so far, the film is more likely to perform in line with adaptations such as Eragon and I Am Number Four rather than having a break-out performance.
- While he has a following, Andrew Niccol's previous films as a director haven't performed all that well at the box office.
Tyler Perry's Temptation
PROS:
- Based on a pre-existing Tyler Perry play, which typically transfers into a stronger box office performance when it comes to Perry's films.
- Three previous Tyler Perry films have debuted on Easter weekend (Why Did I Get Married Too?, Madea's Big Happy Family and Meet the Browns), with opening weekend grosses for those three all falling within the $20 million to $30 million range.
CONS:
- Both of Perry's non-Madea 2012 projects, Good Deeds and Alex Cross, failed to live up to box office expectations.
- Potential could be limited a bit from opening the same weekend as G.I. Joe: Retaliation.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Identity Thief and Side Effects.
Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Perry's Temptation | Mar 29, 2013 | Lionsgate |
$22,000,000 | $47,000,000 |
| G.I. Joe: Retaliation | Mar 29, 2013 | Paramount |
$52,000,000 | $140,000,000 |
| The Host (2013) | Mar 29, 2013 | Open Road |
$25,000,000 | $70,000,000 |
| Admission | Mar 22, 2013 | Focus |
$15,000,000 | $50,000,000 |
| The Croods | Mar 22, 2013 | Fox / DreamWorks Animation |
$40,000,000 | $150,000,000 |
| Olympus Has Fallen | Mar 22, 2013 | FilmDistrict |
$18,000,000 | $48,000,000 |
| The Incredible Burt Wonderstone | Mar 15, 2013 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
$17,000,000 | $52,000,000 |
| The Call | Mar 15, 2013 | Sony / TriStar |
$12,000,000 | $28,000,000 |
| Dead Man Down | Mar 8, 2013 | FilmDistrict |
$9,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Oz: The Great and Powerful | Mar 8, 2013 | Disney |
$55,000,000 | $160,000,000 |
| The Last Exorcism Part II | Mar 1, 2013 | CBS Films |
$11,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| 21 And Over | Mar 1, 2013 | Relativity Media |
$15,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| Jack the Giant Slayer | Mar 1, 2013 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
$23,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| Phantom (2013) | Mar 1, 2013 | RCR Media Group |
$5,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| Dark Skies | Feb 22, 2013 | Weinstein / Dimension |
$10,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| Snitch (2013) | Feb 22, 2013 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$13,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| A Good Day to Die Hard | Feb 14, 2013 | Fox |
$47,000,000* | $125,000,000 |
| Escape From Planet Earth | Feb 14, 2013 | Weinstein Company |
$15,000,000* | $40,000,000 |
| Safe Haven | Feb 14, 2013 | Relativity Media |
$22,000,000* | $57,000,000 |
| Beautiful Creatures (2013) | Feb 14, 2013 | Warner Bros. |
$21,000,000* | $55,000,000 |
| Side Effects (2013) | Feb 8, 2013 | Open Road |
$17,000,000 | $55,000,000 |
| Identity Thief | Feb 8, 2013 | Universal |
$23,000,000 | $74,000,000 |
* = 4-day weekend (Friday-Monday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.
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