Long Range Forecast: 'Oblivion' & 'jOBS'

on February 23, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
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apr19.pngJoining our Long Range Forecast this weekend are two films which have been the recipients of noticeable buzz early on in 2013. Will that fact carry over into strong box office runs for both? Oblivion, one week after its IMAX debut, will go into wide release on Friday, April 19 alongside the Steve Jobs biopic, jOBS.

Oblivion

PROS:

- While he has only been in a few science fiction films, Tom Cruise has had success in the genre with War of the Worlds and Minority Report.
- Thanks in part to being a science fiction film, there is more of an event film feel here than Jack Reacher had back in December.
- Opening a week early in limited IMAX release will help holding power, especially if the film is well received.
- This is the highest profile release of April, at least on paper.

CONS:

- Without Steven Spielberg attached, will the combination of Cruise and science fiction have anywhere near the same level of appeal that it had in the past?
- After a career resurgence with Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Cruise certainly didn't light the box office on fire last year with Rock of Ages and Jack Reacher.
- While initial holding power is likely to be strong, launching wide two weeks before Iron Man 3 and four weeks before Star Trek Into Darkness will obviously hurt the film later in its run.

jOBS

PROS:

- Will appeal to fans of Steve Jobs and Apple.
- Ashton Kutcher has proven to be a consistent draw at the box office over the years.

CONS:

- Early reactions suggest that word of mouth is likely to be very mixed.
- While Kutcher is still a draw, whether moviegoers are interested in seeing him portray Jobs remains to be seen.
- Opening against the higher profile Oblivion will be no easy task.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Jack the Giant Slayer, 21 and Over, The Last Exorcism Part II, Phantom, Oz: The Great and Powerful, Dead Man Down, The Call, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, and The Host.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Jobs Apr 19, 2013 Open Road
$13,000,000 $33,000,000
Oblivion (2013) Apr 12, 2013 Universal
$42,000,000 $120,000,000
42 (2013) Apr 12, 2013 Warner Bros.
$17,000,000 $50,000,000
Scary Movie 5 Apr 12, 2013 Weinstein / Dimension
$20,000,000 $45,000,000
Jurassic Park 3D Apr 5, 2013 Universal
$25,000,000 $55,000,000
Evil Dead Apr 5, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$20,000,000 $47,000,000
The Host (2013) Mar 29, 2013 Open Road
$23,000,000 $63,000,000
Tyler Perry's Temptation Mar 29, 2013 Lionsgate
$22,000,000 $47,000,000
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Mar 29, 2013 Paramount
$48,000,000 $125,000,000
Admission Mar 22, 2013 Focus
$15,000,000 $50,000,000
The Croods Mar 22, 2013 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$40,000,000 $150,000,000
Olympus Has Fallen Mar 22, 2013 FilmDistrict
$17,000,000 $45,000,000
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone Mar 15, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$18,000,000 $55,000,000
The Call Mar 15, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$13,000,000 $30,000,000
Dead Man Down Mar 8, 2013 FilmDistrict
$8,000,000 $22,000,000
Oz: The Great and Powerful Mar 8, 2013 Disney
$65,000,000 $185,000,000
Phantom (2013) Mar 1, 2013 RCR Media Group
$3,000,000 $7,000,000
Jack the Giant Slayer Mar 1, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$21,000,000 $53,000,000
21 And Over Mar 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$15,000,000 $45,000,000
The Last Exorcism Part II Mar 1, 2013 CBS Films
$12,000,000 $25,000,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The Last Exorcism Part II, 21 and Over, The Call, Phantom, Dead Man Down, The Host, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Oz: The Great and Powerful, Jack the Giant Slayer, jOBS, Oblivion
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