Joining our Long Range Forecast this week are the first two new releases of July: Despicable Me 2 and The Lone Ranger.
Despicable Me 2
- Despicable Me exceeded expectations in a big way back in 2010 and was very well received by family audiences in the process. Home video sales were also incredibly strong.
- Universal has kept the Minions within the spotlight over the past three years. Their lasting appeal could be a key component on taking the franchise to new heights.
- As with Monsters University a few weeks earlier, the limited number of family films during the first part of 2013 should help increase demand.
- Unlike many previous animated films released around July 4th, it won't have to face competition from one of the year's larger event films (i.e. no Transformers or superhero films).
- The 15 minutes of footage screened at CinemaCon went over extremely well.
- The previous film having already been in 3D means that any increase in gross will need to come from more admissions.
- Although not really a box office draw these days, could Al Pacino no longer being involved with the film limit further break-out potential with non-family audiences?
- Recent animated sequels such as Kung Fu Panda 2 and Cars 2 have failed to reach to high expectations.
The Lone Ranger
- Johnny Depp and the Disney brand name have had a successful run through the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise and Alice in Wonderland.
- Being based on a well-known property among adults could interest older moviegoers. Online activity may limited by this.
- With a holiday release and Disney's marketing muscle, awareness for the film should be high come July.
- The western genre's box office history is a mixed bag. Aside from Oscar contenders Django Unchained and True Grit, the summer season has been unkind to it with the likes of Cowboys & Aliens, Jonah Hex, and Wild Wild West.
- Opening against Despicable Me 2 could severely cut into its family audience.
- Second weekend competition from White House Down and The Heat.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Star Trek Into Darkness, The Hangover Part III, The Purge, and After Earth.
Check out our forecasts for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|The Lone Ranger||Jul 3, 2013||Disney
|Despicable Me 2||Jul 3, 2013||Universal
|White House Down||Jun 28, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|The Heat||Jun 28, 2013||Fox
|Monsters University||Jun 21, 2013||Disney
|World War Z||Jun 21, 2013||Paramount
|Man of Steel||Jun 14, 2013||Warner Bros.
|This Is The End||Jun 12, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|The Purge||Jun 7, 2013||Universal
|The Internship||Jun 7, 2013||Fox
|After Earth||May 31, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|Now You See Me||May 31, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|Epic||May 24, 2013||Fox
|Fast & Furious 6||May 24, 2013||Universal
|The Hangover Part III
Star Trek Into Darkness
|May 23, 2013
May 16, 2013
* = 4-day weekend (Fri-Mon)
** = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.