Long Range Forecast: 'The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones', 'The World's End', 'You're Next'

on June 28, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
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aug23.pngThree films have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week: The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones (opening Wednesday, August 21), The World's End, and You're Next (both opening on Friday, August 23).

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones

PROS:

- Is performing far stronger on Facebook than either The Host or Beautiful Creatures were two months before their respective releases.
- Will debut against much weaker opening weekend competition than either The Host or Beautiful Creatures did.
- Screen Gems has a strong history with films aimed at teens and young adults.

CONS:

- The over-saturation of young adult adaptations could take a toll on this as well.
- Opens just two weeks after Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters enters the marketplace.
- Could have its potential limited by direct competition from fellow Sony release One Direction: This Is Us, which will be released the following week.

The World's End

PROS:

- The team of Simon Pegg and Nick Frost have steadily increased their drawing power at the box office over the years. 2011's Paul grossed $37.4 million domestically.
- Films starring Pegg and Frost typically display strong holding power. Opening the weekend before Labor Day could help out holding power further.

CONS:

- Pegg and Frost may have a tougher time expanding their audience this time around, especially if there isn't much demand for another end of the world comedy after This Is The End.
- Likely won't receive the same level of marketing that Paul received.

You're Next

PROS:

- Lionsgate has a strong history of success with low budget horror films.
- While late August isn't a strong time for the box office in general, horror films often perform well at that time of year.

CONS:

- The film's marketing could come across as feeling too similar to The Purge.
- Horror fans (especially younger ones) may pass on the film with Insidious Chapter 2 being released three weeks later.
- Opening against The Mortal Instruments and The World's End could limit potential of breaking out beyond horror buffs.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Pacific Rim (down), Grown Ups (up), Turbo (up).

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
You're Next Aug 23, 2013 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $26,000,000
The World's End Aug 23, 2013 Focus
$11,000,000 $33,000,000
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones Aug 21, 2013 Sony / Screen Gems
$15,000,000 $42,000,000
Paranoia Aug 16, 2013 Relativity Media
$11,000,000 $32,000,000
The Butler Aug 16, 2013 Weinstein Company
$17,000,000 $68,000,000
Kick-Ass 2 Aug 16, 2013 Universal
$25,000,000 $58,000,000
Jobs Aug 16, 2013 Open Road
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Planes Aug 9, 2013 Disney
$17,000,000 $70,000,000
Elysium Aug 9, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$30,000,000 $90,000,000
We're the Millers Aug 7, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$22,000,000 $83,000,000
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters Aug 7, 2013 Fox
$20,000,000 $77,000,000
2 Guns Aug 2, 2013 Universal
$43,000,000 $127,000,000
The Smurfs 2 Jul 31, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$26,000,000 $100,000,000
The Wolverine  
R.I.P.D.
Jul 26, 2013
Jul 19, 2013
Fox
Universal
$65,000,000
$15,000,000
$160,000,000
$38,000,000
Red 2 Jul 19, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$22,000,000 $71,000,000
The Conjuring Jul 19, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$23,000,000 $65,000,000
Turbo Jul 17, 2013 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$22,000,000 $85,000,000
Pacific Rim Jul 12, 2013 Warner Bros.
$40,000,000 $140,000,000
Grown Ups 2 Jul 12, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$42,000,000 $135,000,000

Despicable Me 2: $80 million/$365 million
The Lone Ranger: $37 million/$140 million
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain: $7 million/$25 million

* = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The World's End, You're Next, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones
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