Long Range Forecast: 'The Wolf of Wall Street', 'The Secret Life of Walter Mitty', 'Grudge Match', 'Justin Bieber's Believe', & '47 Ronin'

on November 01, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff
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dec25.pngIn this edition of our Long Range Forecast, we're taking at a look at Christmas Day's wide releases for what will be the final weekend of 2013.

The Wolf of Wall Street

PROS:

- The fifth pairing of Scorsese and DiCaprio should have wide appeal after their immense success over the past decade.
- Leo's success from Django Unchained and The Great Gatsby is likely to carry over here.
- In the wake of Thor: The Dark World, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, older audiences will likely gravitate toward a more adult-oriented picture.
- The ensemble cast will widen the potential appeal of the film thanks to Matthew McConaughey and Jonah Hill in potential Oscar attention-grabbing roles.
- Should awards buzz follow, look for a healthy run after an already solid opening weekend.

CONS:

- Will audiences be interested in seeing a 1990s-set movie about a crooked Wall Street banker?
- The apparent "sleaze" of Leo's leading character could be off-putting for general audience consumption.
- The crowded Christmas/New Year's marketplace. 

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

PROS:

- Ben Stiller is a considerable draw, especially during the holidays, thanks to the Meet the Parents and Night at the Museum franchises.
- Stiller has had a successful directing career with the likes of Tropic Thunder, Zoolander, and The Cable Guy.
- Fantastical dramas tend to play well during the holiday season. 

CONS:

- Early reviews don't indicate as much Oscar potential as once thought, which could hamper the film if audiences don't take to it.
- Stiller is, respectably, stepping outside his directorial wheelhouse with this dramedy.
- The crowded holiday marketplace.

Grudge Match

PROS:

- The notion of seeing an aged Rocky Balboa and Jake La Motta in Stallone and De Niro could whet the appetites of older crowds during the holidays.
- Director Peter Segal has a strong track record with past hits like Get Smart, The Longest Yard, 50 First Dates, Anger Management, The Nutty Professor II, and Tommy Boy

CONS:

- Neither Stallone nor De Niro are reliable box office draws on their own these days.
- Will audiences want to watch two old guys slug it out in the middle of a packed marketplace?

Justin Bieber's Believe

PROS:

- Justin Bieber's rabid fan base.
- Bieber previously sent his Never Say Never documentary to an impressive $73 million domestic haul. 

CONS:

- Has Bieber's reign atop popular culture started to fade? He's certainly been on the receiving end of plenty of bad publicity lately. 
- The crowded marketplace.

47 Ronin

PROS:

- Stylized action fans haven't had much to choose from lately.
- Keanu Reeves gives the film some needed recognizable star power. 

CONS:

- Reeves hasn't been a reliable box office draw in years.
- The film will very likely be overshadowed by other holiday releases. 

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Thor: The Dark World (up), About Time (up), The Best Man Holiday (up), Frozen (up), American Hustle (down) and Saving Mr. Banks (down)

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor First Weekend of Wide Release Cumulative
47 Ronin Dec 25, 2013 Universal
$9,000,000* $40,000,000
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty Dec 25, 2013 Fox
$19,000,000* $90,000,000
Grudge Match Dec 25, 2013 Warner Bros.
$13,000,000* $60,000,000
Justin Bieber's Believe Dec 25, 2013 Open Road
$11,000,000* $37,000,000
The Wolf of Wall Street Dec 25, 2013 Paramount
$21,000,000* $100,000,000
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Dec 20, 2013 Paramount
$54,000,000 $185,000,000
Walking With Dinosaurs Dec 20, 2013 Fox
$9,000,000 $54,000,000
American Hustle Dec 13, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$14,000,000 $85,000,000
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug Dec 13, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$82,000,000 $280,000,000
Saving Mr. Banks Dec 13, 2013 Disney
$14,000,000 $85,000,000
Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas Dec 13, 2013 Lionsgate
$25,000,000 $68,000,000
Out of the Furnace Dec 6, 2013 Relativity Media
$9,000,000 $35,000,000
Oldboy (2013) Nov 27, 2013 FilmDistrict
$10,000,000* $28,000,000
Homefront Nov 27, 2013 Open Road
$7,000,000* $20,000,000
Black Nativity Nov 27, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$12,000,000* $36,000,000
Frozen (2013) Nov 22, 2013 Disney
$39,000,000 $180,000,000
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Nov 22, 2013 Lionsgate
$168,000,000 $390,000,000
Delivery Man Nov 22, 2013 Disney / DreamWorks
$12,000,000 $41,000,000
The Best Man Holiday Nov 15, 2013 Universal
$17,000,000 $52,000,000
Thor: The Dark World Nov 8, 2013 Disney
$96,000,000 $245,000,000

About Time: $9.5 million/$50 million

* = 3-day opening weekend (Fri-Sun)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Justin Bieber's Believe, 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, The Wolf of Wall Street
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