If you can believe it, we're one-third of the way through 2013's release calendar. Unfortunately, after a sluggish first quarter, April didn't do much to change the status quo. But, following our analysis, there's good news on the horizon.
Tuesday's final numbers are in, leading to a $631.5 million cume for the summer's lead-in month. That's a 12.5 percent decline from April 2012 when hits like The Hunger Games (a March release) and Think Like a Man led a $721.95 million month--itself a disappointment at the time thanks to soft performances from Titanic 3D, Wrath of the Titans, and American Reunion.
Paramount is entering its final marketing cycle for J.J. Abrams' upcoming Star Trek Into Darkness, and our social network tracking indicates it will be a crucial time for the film's blockbuster prospects.
During the five-day period from April 19-23, Into Darkness was responsible for a solid 7,269 tweets. That number looks disappointing at first glance when compared to Iron Man 3's 13,315 during the similar period one month out from its release. However, Trek's performance was actually comparable to last summer's The Dark Knight Rises (7,236 tweets). The positive-to-negative ratios were even quite similar (Trek's 16.2-to-1 versus Rises' 17-to-1).
When it comes to social network metrics, we expect to see fan-driven genre franchises frequently posting strong results in Facebook and Twitter analyses. It comes as no surprise when Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, or Star Trek Into Darkness rest among the top ten tweeted-about films (as they currently do for this week). But two other May releases are making waves themselves.
The Hangover Part III has been lighting up Facebook all week--and, really, ever since its two trailers debuted. Dating back to April 19, the trilogy-closer has added a massive 1.017 million fans (for a total of 23.6 million and counting). That's 3.
To hardly any surprise, last week's online debut of the first teaser trailer for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was a huge success. On April 15, the trailer helped drive the film to 118,095 tweets in a single day. That broke Iron Man 3's 105,970 single day tweet record for a teaser debut on October 23, 2012, which previously topped The Hobbit's 103,225 on December 21, 2011.
To offer more perspective, that number represented a 2,472 percent increase over the previous day's Twitter activity--comparable to The Hobbit's 2,779 percent jump (and way ahead of Iron Man 3's 641 percent).
The highly anticipated release of Marvel's Iron Man 3 is less than four weeks away, which means it's time to take a look at how the film's online buzz is measuring up before the final marketing stage kick in.
From April 5-10, Iron Man 3 was responsible for a fantastic 13,315 tweets. The film is generating consistent chatter thanks to the debut of a new scene that during Sunday night's MTV Movie Awards. Additionally, the movie held its world premiere in Beijing, China followed by Moscow's own premiere last week.
With an estimated $9.1 million domestic take on Friday, 42 has exceeded our strong pre-release expectations to make history among baseball-themed movies at the box office.
The Friday figure topped the $6.7 million first-day take of Moneyball and blew past Trouble with the Curve's $4.17 million opening day. We're currently projecting a fantastic $28 million weekend debut for 42, topping The Benchwarmers ($19.7 million) and Moneyball ($19.5 million) as the best opening weekend ever for a baseball flick.
On paper, Oblivion has everything it needs to become a hit: two major stars, a big-budget sci-fi concept, and visuals which promise to be worthy of the big screen.
Those facts didn't stop the film from trailing comparable films across social network buzz two weeks ago. Things have since improved slightly with Oblivion generating 12,294 tweets over the last five days. That still significantly trails the 21,506 of Prometheus one week before release, but Oblivion has at least pulled ahead of John Carter's 6,745 during the same time frame. The positive-to-negative ratio has also improved to a strong 18.8-to-1.