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UPDATED: Weekend Predictions: 'Toy Story 3' and 'Jonah Hex'

Featured Stories - on June 17, 2010 by Phil Contrino

Toy Story 3 is bound to give June a boost, while Jonah Hex is on its way to becoming a serious dud

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Thursday Afternoon Update #3: With strong online activity and dominant early sales, Toy Story 3 has a very real shot at topping the best animated opening of all time: Shrek the Third's $121.6 million unadjusted haul.

Thursday Afternoon Update #2: Final Location Counts: Toy Story 3 4,028 (new); The Karate Kid 3,663 (0); The A-Team 3,544 (+9); Shrek Forever After 3,207 (+661); Jonah Hex 2,825 (new); Killers 2,619 (-240); Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time 2,605 (-503); Get Him to the Greek 2,584 (-118); Marmaduke 2,495 (-718); Sex and the City 2 1,680 (-1,070); Iron Man 2 1,045 (-850).

Thursday Afternoon Update: As of Noon PT, Fandango.com is reporting that Toy Story 3 represents an impressive 67 percent of daily sales.

Wednesday Afternoon Update: Two cowboys are entering theaters this weekend: one is plastic, the other is supernatural. The plastic one will dominate the box office.

Disney/Pixar's Toy Story 3 is going to be huge. Even though it's been more than 10 years since Toy Story 2 thrilled audiences, it's quite clear that the franchise hasn't lost any goodwill. If anything, it has only grown in popularity.

According to BOXOFFICE's WebWatch data, TS3 has a very solid presence in the world of Internet opinions. Our most recent report shows that the animated flick boasts a 29.53 percent market share of opinions, putting it second only to The Twilight Saga: Eclipse among unreleased films.

TS3's presence on Facebook and Twitter is also very reassuring. The film's fan growth on Facebook during the days leading up to its release dwarfs the growth that Shrek Forever After saw in May. On Twitter, TS3 is easily beating the volume of Tweets that Disney's Alice in Wonderland collected before posting an impressive $116.1 million opening weekend.

"Three days before opening, pageview activity for Toy Story 3 is pacing just about 20% behind Alice in Wonderland. It's about 70% ahead of Shrek Forever After," says Flixster spokesperson John Singh when discussing activity on the popular website.

As of 4 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that TS3 is responsible for 46 percent of daily sales, which puts it in first place. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse is in second with 27 percent.

Toy Story 3 should bring in $120 million from 3,900 locations during its debut frame.

Jonah Hex
lacks any real momentum. The Warner Bros. release has dud written all over it, and it's bound to end up as one of the biggest disappointments of the summer.

According to WebWatch, Jonah Hex represents an underwhelming 2.47 percent market share of online opinions. It ranks behind The Last Airbender and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, which don't hit theaters until July and August, respectively.

Hex isn't registering on Facebook or Twitter. It's daily growth on Facebook is about half of what A-Team delivered, and it isn't exactly ovewhelming Twitter's servers with tweets.

As of 4 p.m. PT, Jonah Hex has failed to crack the top five sellers list on Fandango. That's a deadly sign for a major studio release.

Look for Jonah Hex to open with $9 million from around 2,700 locations during its debut frame.

After delivering a decisive victory last weekend, The Karate Kid should hold up pretty well during its sophomore frame. The buzz surrounding the martial arts flick is quite positive, and that should help to soften the blow that TS3 will deliver when it sweeps up Karate Kid's younger fans.

Expect The Karate Kid to rake in another $30 million this weekend.

Check out our top 10 predictions in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Toy Story 3 Jun 18, 2010 Disney
$120,000,000 $120,000,000
The Karate Kid (2010) Jun 11, 2010 Sony / Columbia
$30,000,000 $108,000,000
The A-Team Jun 11, 2010 Fox
$14,000,000 $50,300,000
Jonah Hex Jun 18, 2010 Warner Bros.
$9,000,000 $9,000,000
Shrek Forever After May 21, 2010 Paramount / DreamWorks
$8,100,000 $225,900,000
Get Him to the Greek Jun 4, 2010 Universal
$6,200,000 $48,000,000
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time May 28, 2010 Disney
$4,400,000 $79,800,000
Killers Jun 4, 2010 Lionsgate
$4,200,000 $38,600,000
Marmaduke Jun 4, 2010 Fox
$3,200,000 $28,500,000
Iron Man 2 May 7, 2010 Paramount
$3,000,000 $304,300,000

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.

Tags: The Karate Kid (2010), Jonah Hex, Toy Story 3

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