Long Range Forecast: ‘Moneyball,’ ‘Abduction,’ ‘Killer Elite,’ and ‘Dolphin Tale’
Featured Stories - on July 30, 2011 by Daniel Garris
This week we've added four new films to the Long Range Forecast. Sony's Moneyball, Lionsgate's Abduction, Open Road's Killer Elite and Warner's Dolphin Tale are all set to open on September 23.
Leading the way is Moneyball, an adaptation of the book of the same name, based on the behind the scenes happenings of the Oakland Athletics baseball team. Brad Pitt leads the film's cast, which also includes Jonah Hill and Philip Seymour Hoffman. Moneyball may be a little too inside baseball to truly break out, but it should have a solid debut at the box office and could hold up well in the days after opening weekend as it is a likely candidate for generating good word of mouth.
Twilight Saga star Taylor Lautner tries his hand at a starring role in Abduction. The John Singleton directed action-thriller appears to be more sellable than last year's Remember Me, which starred fellow Twilight Saga star Robert Pattinson, but won't have the built-in following that this year's Water For Elephants had. Expect Abduction to be very front-loaded thanks to a likely rush-out of Lautner's fans.
Jason Statham returns to the big screen in the action film Killer Elite. Statham is typically a safe bet for a debut in the neighborhood of $10 million and the added presence of Clive Owen and Robert De Niro in the cast should also help some. However, being released by new distributor Open Road Films could very well limit some of the film's potential.
Dolphin Tale will hope to draw in family audiences, but the film looks to be a tough sell, especially when factoring in 3D surcharges and cast members who aren't as popular as they once were. We aren't expecting much on opening weekend for the family film, but it could hold up well thanks to the limited amount of family fare in October.
Check out our predictions for these films as well as others in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killer Elite | Sep 23, 2011 | Open Road |
$12,000,000 | $30,000,000 |
| Moneyball | Sep 23, 2011 | Sony / Columbia |
$17,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| Abduction | Sep 23, 2011 | Lionsgate |
$13,000,000 | $32,000,000 |
| Dolphin Tale | Sep 23, 2011 | Warner Bros. |
$7,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| The Lion King (2011 re-issue) | Sep 16, 2011 | Disney |
$7,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Straw Dogs (2011) | Sep 16, 2011 | Sony / Screen Gems |
$8,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| Drive (2011) | Sep 16, 2011 | FilmDistrict |
$13,000,000 | $42,000,000 |
| I Don't Know How She Does It | Sep 16, 2011 | Weinstein Company |
$7,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Contagion | Sep 9, 2011 | Warner Bros. |
$22,000,000 | $70,000,000 |
| Bucky Larson: Born To Be A Star | Sep 9, 2011 | Sony / Columbia |
$4,000,000 | $9,000,000 |
| Warrior (2011) | Sep 9, 2011 | Lionsgate |
$9,000,000 | $31,000,000 |
| Shark Night 3D | Sep 2, 2011 | Relativity Media |
$8,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| Apollo 18 | Sep 2, 2011 | Weinstein Company |
$16,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| The Debt | Aug 31, 2011 | Focus |
$10,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Colombiana | Aug 26, 2011 | Sony / Columbia |
$6,000,000 | $15,000,000 |
| Our Idiot Brother | Aug 26, 2011 | Weinstein Company |
$9,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Don't Be Afraid Of The Dark | Aug 26, 2011 | FilmDistrict |
$14,000,000 | $38,000,000 |
| Spy Kids: All The Time In The World | Aug 19, 2011 | Weinstein Company |
$19,000,000 | $65,000,000 |
| Conan the Barbarian (2011) | Aug 19, 2011 | Lionsgate |
$18,000,000 | $42,000,000 |
| Fright Night (2011) | Aug 19, 2011 | DreamWorks |
$17,000,000 | $40,000,000 |
| One Day | Aug 19, 2011 | Focus |
$7,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Final Destination 5 | Aug 12, 2011 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
$26,000,000 | $62,000,000 |
| 30 Minutes or Less | Aug 12, 2011 | Sony / Columbia |
$16,000,000 | $53,000,000 |
| Glee: The 3D Concert Movie | Aug 12, 2011 | Fox |
$12,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| The Help | Aug 10, 2011 | DreamWorks |
$14,000,000 | $55,000,000 |
| Rise of the Planet of the Apes | Aug 5, 2011 | Fox |
$38,000,000 | $97,000,000 |
| The Change-Up | Aug 5, 2011 | Universal |
$22,000,000 | $85,000,000 |
Additional reporting by Phil Contrino and Alex Edghill.
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