Long Range Forecast: 'The Muppets,' 'Hugo,' 'Arthur Christmas' and 'Piranha 3DD'

Featured Stories - on October 08, 2011 by Phil Contrino

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Saturday, 10/8 Update: There are no additions to the Long Range Forecast this week because no wide releases are scheduled to open on December 2. Please note that we have revised our forecast numbers for the following films: Footloose, The Thing, The Big Year, Johnny English Reborn, A Very Harold & Kumar Christmas, The Three Musketeers, Tower Heist and The Muppets.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Hugo Nov 23, 2011 Paramount
$18,000,000 $58,000,000
Arthur Christmas Nov 23, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$12,000,000 $52,000,000
The Muppets Nov 23, 2011 Disney
$36,000,000 $130,000,000
Piranha 3DD Nov 23, 2011 Weinstein Company
$8,000,000 $20,000,000
Happy Feet Two Nov 18, 2011 Warner Bros.
$35,000,000 $175,000,000
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1 Nov 18, 2011 Summit
$155,000,000 $300,000,000
Jack and Jill Nov 11, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$23,000,000 $75,000,000
J. Edgar Nov 9, 2011 Warner Bros.
$12,000,000 $60,000,000
Tower Heist Nov 4, 2011 Universal
$38,000,000 $125,000,000
A Very Harold & Kumar Christmas Nov 4, 2011 Warner Bros. / New Line
$11,000,000 $30,000,000
Puss in Boots (2011) Oct 28, 2011 Paramount / DreamWorks
$40,000,000 $140,000,000
Anonymous Oct 28, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
The Rum Diary Oct 28, 2011 FilmDistrict
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
The Three Musketeers (2011) Oct 21, 2011 Summit
$12,000,000 $35,000,000
Paranormal Activity 3 Oct 21, 2011 Paramount
$34,000,000 $73,000,000
Johnny English Reborn Oct 21, 2011 Universal
$7,000,000 $20,000,000
The Big Year Oct 14, 2011 Fox
$7,000,000 $23,000,000
The Thing (2011) Oct 14, 2011 Universal
$9,000,000 $23,000,000
Footloose (2011) Oct 14, 2011 Paramount
$20,000,000 $55,000,000

Saturday, 10/1 Update: We've added The Muppets, Hugo, Arthur Christmas and Piranha 3DD to our Long Range Forecast this week. All four films are set to open on November 23.

The Muppets is poised to give Disney yet another four-quadrant hit. Jason Segel's labor of love will appeal to adults who grew up with the muppets as a regular part of their lives, twentysomethings who love Segel and co-star Amy Adams and young children who will be introduced to Kermit, Miss Piggy and the gang for the first time. There's no way this can miss.

Hugo marks Martin Scorsese's first attempt at 3D filmmaking, which means it will rope in more than families. Cinema junkies will want to line up to see what the Oscar winner has done with the format. This one has some decent breakout potential.

Arthur Christmas will have to compete directly with Hugo and The Muppets for the attention of families, and it's bound to loseit just doesn't have as much going for it as the other two. Still, the Sony release should manage to become a respectable mid-level hit.

Piranha 3DD will serve as a nice bit of counterprogramming to all the family fare, but its prospects are quite limited. The original only managed $25 million during its entire domestic run. 

Check out our predictions for these films and others in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Piranha 3DD Nov 23, 2011 Weinstein Company
$8,000,000 $20,000,000
Hugo Nov 23, 2011 Paramount
$18,000,000 $58,000,000
Arthur Christmas Nov 23, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$12,000,000 $52,000,000
The Muppets Nov 23, 2011 Disney
$34,000,000 $123,000,000
Happy Feet Two Nov 18, 2011 Warner Bros.
$35,000,000 $175,000,000
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1 Nov 18, 2011 Summit
$155,000,000 $300,000,000
Jack and Jill Nov 11, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$23,000,000 $75,000,000
Immortals Nov 11, 2011 Relativity Media
$21,000,000 $58,000,000
J. Edgar Nov 9, 2011 Warner Bros.
$12,000,000 $60,000,000
Tower Heist Nov 4, 2011 Universal
$40,000,000 $132,000,000
A Very Harold & Kumar Christmas Nov 4, 2011 Warner Bros. / New Line
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Johnny English Reborn Oct 28, 2011 Universal
$6,000,000 $16,000,000
The Rum Diary Oct 28, 2011 FilmDistrict
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Anonymous Oct 28, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Puss in Boots (2011) Oct 28, 2011 Paramount / DreamWorks
$37,000,000 $140,000,000
In Time Oct 28, 2011 Fox
$16,000,000 $45,000,000
Puss in Boots (2011) Oct 28, 2011 Paramount / DreamWorks
$40,000,000 $140,000,000
Paranormal Activity 3 Oct 21, 2011 Paramount
$34,000,000 $73,000,000
The Three Musketeers (2011) Oct 21, 2011 Summit
$14,000,000 $42,000,000
The Thing (2011) Oct 14, 2011 Universal
$12,000,000 $30,000,000
Footloose (2011) Oct 14, 2011 Paramount
$18,000,000 $50,000,000
The Big Year Oct 14, 2011 Fox
$9,000,000 $26,000,000
Real Steel Oct 7, 2011 Disney / DreamWorks
$25,000,000 $72,000,000
The Ides of March Oct 7, 2011 Sony / Columbia
$10,000,000 $35,000,000

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.

 

Tags: Piranha 3DD, Arthur Christmas, Hugo, The Muppets

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