Long Range Forecast: 'Snow White and the Huntsman'

Featured Stories - on April 06, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

swath.jpgWe've added Snow White and the Huntsman to our Long Range Forecast this week.  The Universal release opens nationwide on June 1.

Once known as a quiet weekend, the post-Memorial Day frame has seen more prolific openers in recent years.  For example, last year's X-Men: First Class debuted to $55.1 million.  Since 2000, the top three openers for the post-Memorial weekend include 2004's Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban ($93.7 million), 2003's Finding Nemo ($70.3 million), and 2008's Sex and the City ($57 million).

Snow White and the Huntsman

PROS:

- The film looks to have the weekend all to itself where the only other major factor at that point will be the second weekend of Men In Black 3.
- There's not much being targeted directly at females under 25 in May.  The film also lends itself well to a male audience.
- The advance marketing campaign has helped generate awareness and interest quicker than several of even May's high profile releases.  Online reactions to the trailers have been generally positive.
- Never underestimate the power of an Oscar-winner camping it up in a villainous role. Charlize Theron is a true asset.
- At least part of the Twilight fan base appears to be excited about this, and maybe more willing to follow Stewart to another project.
- Chris Hemsworth is a big buzz factor right now and that could only improve after The Cabin in the Woods and Marvel's The Avengers.  Sam Worthington received a similar bump post-Avatar which helped lead Clash of the Titans to a strong run.
- As the "old" franchises come to an end and/or fade away from their peak of popularity, younger audiences could embrace this and turn it into a mini-surprise -- perhaps even similar to Pirates of the Caribbean in 2003 or Transformers in 2007.

CONS:

- New releases the week after Memorial Day do not typically become major breakouts as audiences scale back their spending in lieu of the bigger movies at the end of June and in July. Its been eight years since a film debuted to more than $57 million on this weekend.
- Robert Pattinson and Taylor Lautner have had a tough time outside of The Twilight Saga so far and Kristen Stewart already has a touch-and-go relationship with some of that fan base.
- Drawing the Twilight fan base could mean significant front-loading if they do show up.
- Online signs may be inflated and misleading.  While it isn't expected to hit Twilight levels for a Twitter ratio, the female appeal should push it well upwards of that.
- Although expectations were much lower, Mirror Mirror and Red Riding Hood both opened softer than widely expected.
- Looks a little too dark for families, and that will stop it from being a much bigger hit. 

Check out our predictions for Snow White and the Huntsman and other films in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Snow White and the Huntsman Jun 1, 2012 Universal
$58,000,000 $160,000,000
Chernobyl Diaries May 25, 2012 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000* $31,000,000
Men in Black 3 May 25, 2012 Sony
$87,000,000* $195,000,000
Battleship May 18, 2012 Universal
$46,000,000 $125,000,000
What to Expect When You're Expecting May 18, 2012 Lionsgate
$19,000,000 $65,000,000
The Dictator May 16, 2012 Paramount $25,000,000 $70,000,000
Dark Shadows May 11, 2012 Warner Bros. $38,000,000 $100,000,000
Marvel's The Avengers May 4, 2012 Disney
$155,000,000 $370,000,000
The Five-Year Engagement Apr 27, 2012 Universal
$23,000,000 $88,000,000
The Raven Apr 27, 2012 Relativity Media
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Safe Apr 27, 2012 Lionsgate
$9,000,000 $23,000,000
The Pirates! Band of Misfits Apr 27, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$9,000,000 $35,000,000
Chimpanzee Apr 20, 2012 Disneynature
$6,000,000 $17,000,000
Think Like a Man Apr 20, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
$21,000,000 $55,000,000
The Lucky One Apr 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$23,000,000 $60,000,000
The Three Stooges Apr 13, 2012 Fox
$13,000,000 $37,000,000
Lockout Apr 13, 2012 Open Road
$6,000,000 $15,000,000
The Cabin in the Woods Apr 13, 2012 Lionsgate
$16,000,000 $39,000,000

* = 4-day (Friday through Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Snow White and the Huntsman

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