Weekend Predictions: 'Men in Black 3' and 'Chernobyl Diaries'

Featured Stories - on May 23, 2012

52512predictions.pngMen in Black 3 is poised to finally end The Avengers' run in 1st placebut will the sci-fi flick be a successful film compared to its predecessors?

When adjusting for inflation, Men in Black's $250.7 million domestic haul from 1997 shoots up to $427.6 million and 2002's Men in Black 2 goes from $190.4 million to $257 millionthose are big shoes for Men in Black 3 to fill. MiB3 also faces the daunting task of opening nearly 10 years after MiB2. Many franchises fail miserably with less of a gap between films, so that could mean trouble unless a big wave of nostalgia hits.

With a plot that involves traveling back in time to the 60s, MiB3 isn't doing a whole lot to modernize the franchise. Many teenagers may be unfamiliar with the property, and missing such a crucial group of moviegoers can be disastrous for any summer blockbuster. Still, Will Smith remains a bankable star and the franchise is bound to have plenty of die-hard fans left. MiB3 won't match its predecessors, but it's not going to be a financial disaster either. 

Men in Black 3 looks poised to bring in $73 million over the extended weekend from around 4,000 locations.

Chernobyl Diaries will try to cash in on the lucrative found-footage trend. Unfortunately, plenty of moviegoers felt ripped-off by The Devil Inside earlier this year, and those negative feelings could extend to Chernobyl. Chernobyl will also be hurt by a very competitive market. Horror films are primarily aimed at males 18-34the same demographic that Avengers, Battleship and Men in Black 3 will all be gunning for.

Chernobyl Diaries should take in $13 million over four days from around 2,450 locations.

Check out the rest of our top 10 predictions for the four-day holiday frame in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor 4-Day Weekend
Cumulative
Men in Black 3 May 25, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$73,000,000 $73,000,000
Marvel's The Avengers May 4, 2012 Disney
$46,000,000 $522,200,000
Battleship May 18, 2012 Universal
$17,000,000 $50,500,000
The Dictator May 16, 2012 Paramount
$13,500,000 $45,600,000
Chernobyl Diaries May 25, 2012 Warner Bros.
$13,000,000 $13,000,000
Dark Shadows May 11, 2012 Warner Bros.
$8,800,000 $64,100,000
What to Expect When You're Expecting May 18, 2012 Lionsgate
$7,800,000 $22,700,000
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel May 4, 2012 Fox Searchlight
$7,300,000 $17,500,000
The Hunger Games Mar 23, 2012 Lionsgate
$2,500,000 $395,300,000
Think Like a Man Apr 20, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
$1,800,000 $88,600,000

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.

Tags: Chernobyl Diaries, Men in Black 3

1 Comment

  • Jay Beezy on 24 May 2012

    "Many franchises fail miserably with less of a gap between films, so that could mean trouble unless a big wave of nostalgia hits."

    Unless I'm just tired, this doesn't sound right.

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