Long Range Forecast: 'Premium Rush', 'The Apparition', & 'Hit & Run'
Featured Stories - on June 30, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff
This week's new additions to our Long Range Forecast come in the form of Premium Rush, The Apparition and Hit and Miss. All three films are currently scheduled to open on Friday, August 24.
Premium Rush
PROS:
- Likely to be the best of the weekend's three wide releases by default.
- Labor Day weekend should help its holding power.
- Levitt has a small and growing following of his own.
CONS:
- Audiences won't be craving for another actioner of any kind for awhile after the glut of genre movies releasing before it in August.
- Pre-Labor Day weekend should add to the low upfront demand.
The Apparition
PROS:
- Has the advantage of arriving one week before The Possession.
- There isn't much for the horror audience out there this summer, and the PG-13 rating plus Ashley Greene should draw some of the teen crowd.
- The Last Exorcism similarly broke out on opening weekend in August 2010 thanks to its teen-friendly rating.
CONS:
- Warner Bros. and Dark Castle had poor results with Chernobyl Diaries.
- Audiences may wait for The Possession instead, especially given Lionsgate's successful history with the genre.
- Likely to be very front-loaded.
Hit & Run
PROS:
- Bradley Cooper and Kristen Bell add some name recognition to the release.
CONS:
- Inspires the feeling of a film being dumped at the end of August.
- Cooper and Bell seem to take an apparent back seat to Dax Shepard.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include The Amazing Spider-Man, Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D, Savages, The Dark Knight Rises, The Campaign and The Bourne Legacy.
Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium Rush | Aug 24, 2012 | Sony / Columbia |
$11,000,000 | $37,500,000 |
| Hit And Run | Aug 24, 2012 | Open Road |
$7,500,000 | $19,000,000 |
| The Apparition | Aug 24, 2012 | Warner Bros. |
$14,000,000 | $32,500,000 |
| The Expendables 2 | Aug 17, 2012 | Lionsgate |
$37,000,000 | $105,000,000 |
| Sparkle (2012) | Aug 17, 2012 | Sony / TriStar |
$14,000,000 | $38,000,000 |
| ParaNorman | Aug 17, 2012 | Focus |
$19,000,000 | $70,000,000 |
| The Odd Life of Timothy Green | Aug 15, 2012 | Disney |
$7,500,000 | $28,000,000 |
| Hope Springs (2012) | Aug 10, 2012 | Sony / Columbia |
$24,000,000 | $106,000,000 |
| The Bourne Legacy | Aug 10, 2012 | Universal |
$39,000,000 | $125,000,000 |
| The Campaign | Aug 10, 2012 | Warner Bros. |
$30,000,000 | $100,000,000 |
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Total Recall (2012) |
Aug 3, 2012 Aug 3, 2012 |
Fox Sony / Columbia |
$19,000,000 $21,000,000 |
$52,000,000 $60,000,000 |
| The Watch | Jul 27, 2012 | 20th Century Fox |
$29,000,000 | $95,000,000 |
| Step Up Revolution | Jul 27, 2012 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$12,000,000 | $31,000,000 |
| The Dark Knight Rises | Jul 20, 2012 | Warner Bros. |
$190,000,000 | $535,000,000 |
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | Jul 13, 2012 | Fox |
$59,000,000 | $200,000,000 |
|
Savages |
Jul 6, 2012 Jul 5, 2012 Jul 3, 2012 |
Universal |
$13,000,000 $13,000,000† $60,000,000† |
$45,000,000 $40,000,000 $220,000,000 |
† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.
BoxOfficeWeekend on 01 July 2012
The Apparition will make more than $14 million in the opening weekend. A better release date would be in October. I expect Silent Hill movie to make a killing in the first weekend.
BoxOfficeWeekend on 01 July 2012
The Apparition movie will make about $18-$22 million in the first weekend. Will cap off at $40-45 million in total domestic sales.
http://www.BoxOfficeWeekend.com