Long Range Forecast: 'The Campaign' & 'Hope Springs'

Featured Stories - on June 16, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

aug10.pngJoining our Long Range Forecast this week are two star-driven new releases scheduled to debut on Friday, August 10: the Will Ferrell-Zach Galifianakis political comedy The Campaign, and Hope Springs, starring Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones, and Steve Carell.

The Campaign

PROS:

- Combining two of the most popular comedic actors of right now is guaranteed to draw significant interest.
- Dinner for Schmucks aside, director Jay Roach has a strong box office resume with the Austin Powers trilogy and first two films in the Meet the Parents series.
- Being an election year could elevate the relevance of this for audiences.
- Ferrell rarely (if ever) misses in the summer.  The Other Guys, Talladega Nights, Step Brothers, and Anchorman all had strong legs in late July and early August (and all adjust to at least $109 million today with ticket price inflation).
- Besides Ted possibly, this is the only broadly appealing comedy of the summer and audiences will be starved for something light.

CONS:

- We haven't had many lately, but past political comedies have been tough sells at the box office.
- The other male-centric early August releases (The Bourne Legacy, Total Recall, The Expendables 2) might cut into this more than they will Hope Springs (which does have Sparkle to contend with). 

Hope Springs

PROS:

- While there's likely a lot of overlap in their respective fanbases, Streep and Carell together could be a slightly bigger draw than either on their own.
- Carell and Streep each consistently open films to $20 million or more and they're usually leggy. In addition, both have a lot of success with late summer releases (Crazy, Stupid, Love. and The 40-Year-Old Virgin for Carell, The Devil Wears Prada and Julie & Julia for Streep).
- Adult women and older audiences could latch onto this.  There's not much out there for them this summer.
- There will be inevitable Oscar talk for Streep and Jones.

CONS:

- Carell's younger audience won't be interested in this, so the opening will rely more on Streep's appeal.
- There could be some potential overlap between the audience for this and The Campaign, with the latter almost certain to be stronger out of the gate.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Brave, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, Ted, and Magic Mike.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Campaign Aug 10, 2012 Warner Bros.
$33,000,000 $105,000,000
Hope Springs (2012) Aug 10, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$26,000,000 $106,000,000
The Bourne Legacy Aug 3, 2012 Universal
$40,000,000 $130,000,000
Total Recall (2012) Aug 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$21,000,000 $60,000,000
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Aug 3, 2012 Fox
$19,000,000 $52,000,000
Step Up Revolution Jul 27, 2012 Lionsgate
$12,000,000 $31,000,000
The Watch Jul 27, 2012 20th Century Fox
$26,000,000 $86,000,000
The Dark Knight Rises Jul 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$186,000,000 $520,000,000
Ice Age: Continental Drift Jul 13, 2012 Fox
$59,000,000 $200,000,000
Savages Jul 6, 2012 Universal
$14,000,000 $45,000,000
Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D Jul 5, 2012 Paramount
$16,000,000† $50,000,000
The Amazing Spider-Man Jul 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$64,000,000† $233,000,000
Magic Mike Jun 29, 2012 Warner Bros.
$24,000,000 $78,000,000
People Like Us Jun 29, 2012 Disney
$6,500,000 $23,000,000
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection Jun 29, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000 $45,000,000
Ted (2012) Jun 29, 2012 Universal
$21,000,000 $70,000,000
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Jun 22, 2012 Focus
$11,000,000 $39,000,000
Brave Jun 22, 2012 Disney
$59,000,000 $225,000,000
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Jun 22, 2012 Fox
$13,000,000 $33,000,000

† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Hope Springs, The Campaign

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