Long Range Forecast: 'Gangster Squad' & 'The Words'

Featured Stories - on July 13, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

sep7.pngThis week, we've added two new releases to our Long Range Forecast.  Gangster Squad and The Words are both currently set to release on Friday, September 7.

Gangster Squad

PROS:

- A strong cast that includes Ryan Gosling, Sean Penn and Emma Stone.
- Moviegoers seem to be excited about the trailer, at least on the internet.
- The Town found great success two Septembers ago and this seems to cater toward a similar crowd. 

CONS:

- Drive didn't live up to its pre-release internet hype last year, at least in terms of being a break-out.
- Moviegoers may decide to wait for the more familiar choices of Finding Nemo 3D and Resident Evil: Retribution a week later (particularly the latter).

The Words

PROS:

- Bradley Cooper proved to have drawing power with Limitless, although this doesn't feel as mainstream friendly as that film did.
- Zoe Saldana's presence could help some as well.  She previously helped Colombiana earn decent numbers.

CONS:

- Will that many moviegoers want to see a film about plagiarism, regardless of who is in it, or how good it is?
- The trailer focuses heavily on the writing that takes place within the film.   Focusing more on the dramatic and thriller aspects of the film instead could be more beneficial.
- As mentioned, moviegoers may pass on this weekend in general as they wait for the following weekend's choices.

Notable changes on our forecast this week: The Dark Knight Rises.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Words Sep 7, 2012 Alliance Films
CBS Films
$10,000,000 $29,000,000
Gangster Squad Sep 7, 2012 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $56,000,000
The Possession Aug 31, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000† $40,000,000
Lawless Aug 29, 2012 Weinstein Company
$13,000,000† $31,000,000
Hit And Run Aug 24, 2012 Open Road
$8,000,000 $19,000,000
Premium Rush Aug 24, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$11,000,000 $38,000,000
The Apparition Aug 24, 2012 Warner Bros.
$14,000,000 $33,000,000
ParaNorman Aug 17, 2012 Focus
$19,000,000 $70,000,000
The Expendables 2 Aug 17, 2012 Lionsgate
$37,000,000 $105,000,000
Sparkle (2012) Aug 17, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$14,000,000 $38,000,000
The Odd Life of Timothy Green Aug 15, 2012 Disney
$8,000,000 $28,000,000
The Bourne Legacy Aug 10, 2012 Universal
$39,000,000 $125,000,000
The Campaign Aug 10, 2012 Warner Bros.
$30,000,000 $100,000,000
Hope Springs (2012) Aug 10, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$24,000,000 $106,000,000
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Aug 3, 2012 Fox
$19,000,000 $52,000,000
Total Recall (2012) Aug 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$21,000,000 $60,000,000
The Watch Jul 27, 2012 20th Century Fox
$29,000,000 $95,000,000
Step Up Revolution Jul 27, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$12,000,000 $31,000,000
The Dark Knight Rises Jul 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$195,000,000 $575,000,000

† = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: The Words, The Cold Light of Day, Gangster Squad

1 Comment

  • BoxOfficeWeekend on 15 July 2012

    What is your predictions on Silent Hill: Revelation 3D? We see The Apparition and The Possession beating out the box office projections. These genre movies can make as much money as word of mouth will allow.

    The Possession is going to make far more than $20 million. This is high demand for exorcism movies. If The Devil Inside can make $34.5 million in its opening weekend, we see The Possession finishing above $25+ million.

    We will be promoting The Apparition and The Possession movies as much as possible. In our opinion, the movie trailer is awesome. It is eerie, covering all the points that The Devil Inside missed. Try watching this trailer at night.

    The Bourne Legacy may make more. Matt Damon was the face of the movie franchise. If Damon returned, this movie could have easily made $80+ million in the opening weekend. We see The Bourne Legacy taking some of The Campaign movie. Action/Espionage/Assassin movies sell.

    Good long term projections.

    http://www.BoxOfficeWeekend.com

What do you think?