Long Range Forecast: 'The Possession' & 'Lawless'

Featured Stories - on July 07, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

aug31.pngThis week, we've added two films to our Long Range Forecast: Lawless (opening Wednesday, August 29) and The Possession (Friday, August 31).  Both films headline the new releases ahead of Labor Day weekend.

The Possession

PROS:

- The film has a good chance of appealing to teens and fans of the exorcism genre.
- Lionsgate boasts a successful history with the genre.

CONS:

- The exorcism genre itself is typically very front-loaded.
- It opens one week after The Apparition, although there could be room for both given the overall lack of horror films this summer.
- The Labor Day weekend release date.  Halloween (2007) and The Transporter 2 are the only films to have opened with four-day grosses north of $20 million during Labor Day weekend.
- Its debut trailer generated 1,400 tweets compared to the 1,223 figure of The Apparition.  These aren't huge numbers, but horrors tend to rely on TV spots and viral campaigns to really get them pumping.

Lawless

PROS:

- A strong cast including Shia LaBeouf, Gary Oldman and Tom Hardy (the latter two of which will be coming off of The Dark Knight Rises).
- Films aimed at adults have generated respectable Labor Day weekend returns for the past two years (The American in 2010 and The Debt in 2011).

CONS:

- Quite a bit of time has passed since Disturbia and Eagle Eye for Shia LaBeouf.   On top of that, will his fans be excited by a film set in the Prohibition Era?
- It could take an extra hit in its second weekend from the debut of Gangster Squad.
- The Labor Day weekend release date still hurts more than it helps as audiences hunker down after a summer's worth of spending money at the theater.

There are no additional changes on this week's forecast.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Possession Aug 31, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000† $40,000,000
Lawless Aug 29, 2012 Weinstein Company
$13,000,000† $31,000,000
Premium Rush Aug 24, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$11,000,000 $38,000,000
The Apparition Aug 24, 2012 Warner Bros.
$14,000,000 $33,000,000
Hit And Run Aug 24, 2012 Open Road
$8,000,000 $19,000,000
Sparkle (2012) Aug 17, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$14,000,000 $38,000,000
ParaNorman Aug 17, 2012 Focus
$19,000,000 $70,000,000
The Expendables 2 Aug 17, 2012 Lionsgate
$37,000,000 $105,000,000
The Odd Life of Timothy Green Aug 15, 2012 Disney
$8,000,000 $28,000,000
The Bourne Legacy Aug 10, 2012 Universal
$39,000,000 $125,000,000
The Campaign Aug 10, 2012 Warner Bros.
$30,000,000 $100,000,000
Hope Springs (2012) Aug 10, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$24,000,000 $106,000,000
Total Recall (2012) Aug 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$21,000,000 $60,000,000
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Aug 3, 2012 Fox
$19,000,000 $52,000,000
The Watch Jul 27, 2012 20th Century Fox
$29,000,000 $95,000,000
Step Up Revolution Jul 27, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$12,000,000 $31,000,000
The Dark Knight Rises Jul 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$190,000,000 $535,000,000
Ice Age: Continental Drift Jul 13, 2012 Fox
$59,000,000

$200,000,000

† = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: The Possession, Lawless

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