Long Range Forecast: 'Argo', 'Here Comes the Boom', & 'Seven Psychopaths'
Featured Stories - on August 18, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff
This week, we've added three new films to our Long Range Forecast: Ben Affleck's Argo, Here Comes the Boom and Seven Psychopaths. All three films are currently scheduled for release on Friday, October 12.
Argo
PROS:
- Ben Affleck has revived his career as an actor while establishing himself as a quality director for the masses. The critical and commercial success of Gone Baby Gone and The Town should help the appeal of this.
- Potentially early Oscar bait that could help extend its legs.
- Similar Fall release date as The Town.
- Online reactions to the trailer have been quite positive.
CONS:
- A potentially less mainstream-friendly plot than The Town which could give it more of a Munich or Body of Lies-type of October run.
- Competition from two other star-driven vehicles: Taken 2's second weekend (if it takes off) and Killing Them Softly opening one week later.
Here Comes the Boom
PROS:
- Kevin James has his fair share of an audience.
- This is the first mainstream comedy to release since The Campaign in early August, so demand should boost the upfront appeal.
- Has a better chance of bringing in family audiences than The Dilemma did.
CONS:
- James hasn't top-lined a hit since Paul Blart three year and a half years ago and is still proving his ability as a solo draw. His last two flicks were box office disappointments (The Dilemma and Zookeeper).
- With audiences saving money for the holidays and a fair amount of competition in the October market, this is the kind of movie that could easily be overlooked in theaters.
- James being in a more serious role (by his standards) is a tough sell, but there is also a chance that it might just interest his fans.
Seven Psychopaths
PROS:
- A relatively well-known ensemble cast.
- In Bruges (which shared the same director) has a very dedicated fanbase, but on the other hand it isn't a very big one.
CONS:
- The ensemble, however, isn't really made up of box office stars.
- Coming from the director of In Bruges, this R-rated comedy isn't likely to be everyone's cup of tea.
- Will have to deal with the direct competition from Argo, and likely will have to do so with a smaller location count.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Premium Rush, Hit & Run and The Possession. Additionally, The Apparition has been removed from the chart as Warner Bros. has decided to give it only a semi-wide release.
Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seven Psychopaths | Oct 12, 2012 | CBS Films |
$6,000,000 | $19,000,000 |
| Argo | Oct 12, 2012 | Warner Bros. |
$18,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| Here Comes the Boom | Oct 12, 2012 | Sony / Columbia |
$15,000,000 | $47,000,000 |
| Sinister | Oct 5, 2012 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$10,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Taken 2 | Oct 5, 2012 | Fox |
$34,000,000 | $102,000,000 |
| Frankenweenie | Oct 5, 2012 | Disney |
$20,000,000 | $74,000,000 |
| Pitch Perfect | Oct 5, 2012 | Universal |
$6,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| Won't Back Down | Sep 28, 2012 | Fox |
$7,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| Looper | Sep 28, 2012 | Sony / TriStar |
$21,000,000 | $65,000,000 |
| Hotel Transylvania | Sep 28, 2012 | Sony / Columbia |
$22,000,000 | $68,000,000 |
| End of Watch | Sep 21, 2012 | Open Road |
$14,000,000 | $39,000,000 |
| Trouble with the Curve | Sep 21, 2012 | Warner Bros. |
$16,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| Dredd | Sep 21, 2012 | Lionsgate |
$13,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| House at the End of the Street | Sep 21, 2012 | Relativity Media |
$22,000,000 | $63,000,000 |
| Resident Evil: Retribution | Sep 14, 2012 | Sony / Screen Gems |
$23,000,000 | $52,000,000 |
| Finding Nemo 3D | Sep 14, 2012 | Disney |
$24,000,000 | $68,000,000 |
| The Words | Sep 7, 2012 | CBS Films |
$10,000,000 | $29,000,000 |
| The Possession | Aug 31, 2012 | Lionsgate |
$21,000,000* | $43,000,000 |
| Lawless | Aug 29, 2012 | Weinstein Company |
$14,000,000† | $35,000,000 |
| Premium Rush | Aug 24, 2012 | Sony / Columbia |
$9,000,000 | $28,000,000 |
| Hit & Run | Aug 22, 2012 | Open Road Films |
$8,000,000 | $21,000,000 |
† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)
* = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.
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