Long Range Forecast: 'Cloud Atlas', 'The Big Wedding', 'Silent Hill: Revelation 3D', 'Chasing Mavericks', & 'Fun Size'

Featured Stories - on September 01, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

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Five new releases have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week.  Cloud Atlas, The Big Wedding, Silent Hill: Revelation 3D, Chasing Mavericks and Fun Size are all scheduled for wide release on Friday, October 26 during the lead-in weekend to the holiday box office season.

Cloud Atlas

PROS:

- The extended trailer for the film received very positive reactions online.
- A high-profile film with a unique feel to it has the potential to go over well in a year full of sequels.
- Being based on a novel typically helps.

CONS:

- The unique feel can easily turn into something too high concept and/or esoteric for mainstream audiences.
- Opening after several consecutive weekends of higher profile films and one week before the holiday box office season begins could strongly diminish demand.
- Will high interest levels among the online film community transfer over to more mainstream moviegoers in this case?
- A high-profile filmmaker would usually go a long way toward selling this kind of film, but the Wachowskis were never able to capitalize on their brief popularity following The Matrix.  Speed Racer only made matters worse.
- The combination of Tom Hanks, Hugh Grant, Halle Berry and the Wachowskis could come across as being a bit "too 1990s".

The Big Wedding

PROS:

- A collective cast that includes Robert De Niro, Amanda Seyfried, Katherine Heigl, Diane Keaton and Robin Williams.
- Wedding-themed films tend to have at least respectable showings at the box office.
- DeNiro has found success with wedding- and family-themed films in the past with the Meet the Parents franchise.
- A non-wedding season release date aside, the family-driven concept has sleeper status written all over it.

CONS:

- Not the best release date choice given the proximity to Halloween and what will be a crowded marketplace at the time.
- De Niro, Williams and even Heigl have all seen better days when it comes to their box office drawing power.

Silent Hill: Revelation 3D

PROS:

- The first film was a very solid performer back in 2006.
- Will have the advantage of 3D ticket premiums this time around.
- The series is based on the popular video game console series which is about to see its 9th title released. It has sold over 7.5 million units across all platforms.
- There was five years between the first and second Resident Evil films.

CONS:

- It has been over six years since the first film. That long of a wait typically isn't good for a sequel.
- Audiences in the mood for scares are sure to choose Paranormal Activity 4 in its second weekend instead.
- By comparison, the Resident Evil video game series has sold 50 million units across all platforms.
- Sony, who distributed the first film and is very proven when it comes to similar films, won't be distributing this time around.

Chasing Mavericks

PROS:

- Soul Surfer exceeded expectations last year.
- Could be a crowd-pleaser with Curtis Hanson (8 Mile, L.A. Confidential) and Michael Apted (The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, The World Is Not Enough) as co-directors.

CONS:

- Gerard Butler hasn't proven to be much of a box office draw post-300.
- Will those not interested in surfing have any interest in seeing the film?

Fun Size

PROS:

- Nickelodeon Movies has a solid history at the box office.
-  Features Victoria Justice, who has a growing following similar to Miley Cyrus or Miranda Cosgrove.  She could draw tweens all on her own. 

CONS:

- In trying to appeal to both teens and children, the film may ultimately turn off both teens and parents.
- Many teens in the mood for a Halloween film will no doubt want to see Paranormal Activity 4 instead.
- Many families will have already have spent money on Frankenweenie and/or Hotel Transylvania.  Those who haven't will still have those options to choose from instead.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include The Words and Pitch Perfect.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Big Wedding Oct 26, 2012 Lionsgate
$15,000,000 $43,000,000
Chasing Mavericks Oct 26, 2012 Fox
$6,000,000 $15,000,000
Fun Size Oct 26, 2012 Paramount
$6,000,000 $14,000,000
Cloud Atlas Oct 26, 2012 Warner Bros.
$23,000,000 $63,000,000
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Oct 26, 2012 Open Road
$10,000,000 $23,000,000
Killing Them Softly Oct 19, 2012 Weinstein Company
$12,000,000 $38,000,000
Alex Cross Oct 19, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$18,000,000 $43,000,000
Paranormal Activity 4 Oct 19, 2012 Paramount
$45,000,000 $88,000,000
Seven Psychopaths Oct 12, 2012 CBS Films
$6,000,000 $19,000,000
Argo Oct 12, 2012 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $60,000,000
Here Comes the Boom Oct 12, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$15,000,000 $47,000,000
Sinister Oct 5, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$10,000,000 $25,000,000
Taken 2 Oct 5, 2012 Fox
$34,000,000 $102,000,000
Frankenweenie Oct 5, 2012 Disney
$20,000,000 $74,000,000
Pitch Perfect Oct 5, 2012 Universal
$8,000,000 $21,000,000
Looper Sep 28, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$21,000,000 $65,000,000
Hotel Transylvania Sep 28, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$22,000,000 $68,000,000
Won't Back Down Sep 28, 2012 Fox
$7,000,000 $23,000,000
End of Watch Sep 21, 2012 Open Road
$14,000,000 $39,000,000
Trouble with the Curve Sep 21, 2012 Warner Bros.
$16,000,000 $60,000,000
Dredd 3D Sep 21, 2012 Lionsgate
$13,000,000 $35,000,000
House at the End of the Street Sep 21, 2012 Relativity Media
$22,000,000 $63,000,000
Finding Nemo 3D Sep 14, 2012 Disney
$25,000,000 $70,000,000
Resident Evil: Retribution Sep 14, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
$23,000,000 $52,000,000
The Words Sep 7, 2012 CBS Films
$6,000,000 $17,000,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Fun Size, Chasing Mavericks, Silent Hill: Revelation 3D, The Big Wedding, Cloud Atlas

1 Comment

  • Leslieadams on 09 September 2012

    There was only two years between the first resident evil movies. 2002 and 2004 were their years of release.

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