Long Range Forecast: 'Skyfall'

Featured Stories - on September 14, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

skyfall.pngThis week sees the addition of a single new release to our forecast: the 23rd (official) installment of the James Bond franchise, Skyfall.

Daniel Craig returns in his third outing as 007 four years after Quantum of Solace. Caused by the MGM bankruptcy two years ago, the gap between Bond flicks marks only the third time he's been off the screen for more than three years (and the first time of that length without seeing a new actor take over). 1995's GoldenEye came six years after License to Kill, while 2006's Casino Royale released four years after Die Another Day.

Skyfall

PROS:

- This will be marketed and sold as the first "event" movie of the holiday season, and the first since The Dark Knight Rises.
- Very little direct competition for the rest of the year.
- Craig's popularity as Bond still seems strong despite the relative disappointment of Quantum of Solace.
- Adding a somewhat recognizable villain in Javier Bardem and a fan-favorite character, Q, could help also.
- IMAX should prove to be a strong draw as we've seen with most blockbusters lately, and will boost the dollar sales.
- With the Bourne franchise stumbling this year, audiences may be looking for a familiar spy series that lives up to its name.
- Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol proved last winter that a solid spy flick with a recognizable brand could overcome previous franchise disappointment and find a big audience. In the middle of a down market, no less.
- As the longest enduring franchise in box office history, Bond has overcome disappointing predecessors before.
- Further establishing the popularity of Craig and Casino RoyaleQuantum of Solace ($67.5 million) saw a 65% increase in opening weekend revenue over Royale's ($40.8 million) -- the biggest increase of any modern Bond film.
- Adjusted for inflation, the last six Bond movies (dating back to 1995's GoldenEye) sold enough tickets to average $204 million domestically with today's ticket prices. The adjusted opening weekend average of the last four (back to 1999's The World Is Not Enough) is almost $62 million.

CONS:

- Quantum of Solace let down some fans following the widely-praised Casino Royale. Will that be a factor? At the very least, it could result in some back-loading here.
- Not accounting for inflation, no Bond film has ever grossed more than $168.4 million domestically (Quantum of Solace's total).
- Despite being the more popular and well-received films, Casino Royale actually dropped in ticket sales from Die Another Day while GoldenEye sold fewer tickets than any other Brosnan film. Can this mostly be chalked up to the fact that Royale and GoldenEye lost some upfront demand due to the changing of the Bond guard? 

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Dredd, End of Watch, House at the End of the Street and Trouble with the Curve. In addition, Sinister has been pushed to a new release date of October 12 while Killing Them Softly has been removed from the forecast due to its newest release change to November 30.

Check out our predictions for Skyfall and other movies in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Skyfall Nov 9, 2012 Sony
$76,000,000 $216,000,000
The Man With the Iron Fists Nov 2, 2012 Universal
$11,000,000 $26,000,000
Wreck-It Ralph Nov 2, 2012 Disney
$53,000,000 $175,000,000
Flight Nov 2, 2012 Paramount
$32,000,000 $98,000,000
Cloud Atlas Oct 26, 2012 Warner Bros.
$23,000,000 $63,000,000
Fun Size Oct 26, 2012 Paramount
$6,000,000 $14,000,000
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Oct 26, 2012 Open Road
$10,000,000 $23,000,000
Chasing Mavericks Oct 26, 2012 Fox
$6,000,000 $15,000,000
Paranormal Activity 4 Oct 19, 2012 Paramount
$45,000,000 $88,000,000
Alex Cross Oct 19, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$18,000,000 $43,000,000
Seven Psychopaths Oct 12, 2012 CBS Films
$6,000,000 $19,000,000
Argo Oct 12, 2012 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $65,000,000
Here Comes the Boom Oct 12, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$15,000,000 $47,000,000
Sinister Oct 12, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$10,000,000 $25,000,000
Taken 2 Oct 5, 2012 Fox
$34,000,000 $102,000,000
Frankenweenie Oct 5, 2012 Disney
$20,000,000 $74,000,000
Won't Back Down Sep 28, 2012 Fox
$7,000,000 $23,000,000
Looper Sep 28, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$21,000,000 $65,000,000
Hotel Transylvania Sep 28, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$22,000,000 $68,000,000
Pitch Perfect Sep 28, 2012 Universal
$8,000,000 $21,000,000
House at the End of the Street Sep 21, 2012 Relativity Media
$22,000,000 $57,000,000
End of Watch Sep 21, 2012 Open Road
$11,000,000 $29,000,000
Dredd 3D Sep 21, 2012 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $28,000,000
Trouble with the Curve Sep 21, 2012 Warner Bros.
$20,000,000 $73,000,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Skyfall

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