Long Range Forecast: 'Skyfall'
Featured Stories - on September 14, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff
This week sees the addition of a single new release to our forecast: the 23rd (official) installment of the James Bond franchise, Skyfall.
Daniel Craig returns in his third outing as 007 four years after Quantum of Solace. Caused by the MGM bankruptcy two years ago, the gap between Bond flicks marks only the third time he's been off the screen for more than three years (and the first time of that length without seeing a new actor take over). 1995's GoldenEye came six years after License to Kill, while 2006's Casino Royale released four years after Die Another Day.
- This will be marketed and sold as the first "event" movie of the holiday season, and the first since The Dark Knight Rises.
- Very little direct competition for the rest of the year.
- Craig's popularity as Bond still seems strong despite the relative disappointment of Quantum of Solace.
- Adding a somewhat recognizable villain in Javier Bardem and a fan-favorite character, Q, could help also.
- IMAX should prove to be a strong draw as we've seen with most blockbusters lately, and will boost the dollar sales.
- With the Bourne franchise stumbling this year, audiences may be looking for a familiar spy series that lives up to its name.
- Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol proved last winter that a solid spy flick with a recognizable brand could overcome previous franchise disappointment and find a big audience. In the middle of a down market, no less.
- As the longest enduring franchise in box office history, Bond has overcome disappointing predecessors before.
- Further establishing the popularity of Craig and Casino Royale, Quantum of Solace ($67.5 million) saw a 65% increase in opening weekend revenue over Royale's ($40.8 million) -- the biggest increase of any modern Bond film.
- Adjusted for inflation, the last six Bond movies (dating back to 1995's GoldenEye) sold enough tickets to average $204 million domestically with today's ticket prices. The adjusted opening weekend average of the last four (back to 1999's The World Is Not Enough) is almost $62 million.
- Quantum of Solace let down some fans following the widely-praised Casino Royale. Will that be a factor? At the very least, it could result in some back-loading here.
- Not accounting for inflation, no Bond film has ever grossed more than $168.4 million domestically (Quantum of Solace's total).
- Despite being the more popular and well-received films, Casino Royale actually dropped in ticket sales from Die Another Day while GoldenEye sold fewer tickets than any other Brosnan film. Can this mostly be chalked up to the fact that Royale and GoldenEye lost some upfront demand due to the changing of the Bond guard?
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Dredd, End of Watch, House at the End of the Street and Trouble with the Curve. In addition, Sinister has been pushed to a new release date of October 12 while Killing Them Softly has been removed from the forecast due to its newest release change to November 30.
Check out our predictions for Skyfall and other movies in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Skyfall||Nov 9, 2012||Sony
|The Man With the Iron Fists||Nov 2, 2012||Universal
|Wreck-It Ralph||Nov 2, 2012||Disney
|Flight||Nov 2, 2012||Paramount
|Cloud Atlas||Oct 26, 2012||Warner Bros.
|Fun Size||Oct 26, 2012||Paramount
|Silent Hill: Revelation 3D||Oct 26, 2012||Open Road
|Chasing Mavericks||Oct 26, 2012||Fox
|Paranormal Activity 4||Oct 19, 2012||Paramount
|Alex Cross||Oct 19, 2012||Lionsgate / Summit
|Seven Psychopaths||Oct 12, 2012||CBS Films
|Argo||Oct 12, 2012||Warner Bros.
|Here Comes the Boom||Oct 12, 2012||Sony / Columbia
|Sinister||Oct 12, 2012||Lionsgate / Summit
|Taken 2||Oct 5, 2012||Fox
|Frankenweenie||Oct 5, 2012||Disney
|Won't Back Down||Sep 28, 2012||Fox
|Looper||Sep 28, 2012||Sony / TriStar
|Hotel Transylvania||Sep 28, 2012||Sony / Columbia
|Pitch Perfect||Sep 28, 2012||Universal
|House at the End of the Street||Sep 21, 2012||Relativity Media
|End of Watch||Sep 21, 2012||Open Road
|Dredd 3D||Sep 21, 2012||Lionsgate
|Trouble with the Curve||Sep 21, 2012||Warner Bros.
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.