Weekend Predictions: 'Cloud Atlas', 'Silent Hill: Revelation', 'Fun Size', & 'Chasing Mavericks'

Featured Stories - on October 24, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

oct26.pngThis weekend, four new films go into wide release on the final frame of the pre-holiday box office season. Cloud Atlas, Silent Hill: Revelation, Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks are scheduled to launch on Friday, October 26.

Cloud Atlas

PROS:

- Being based on a well-known novel could help.
- Warner Bros. has pushed the ambitious sci-fi drama with a fairly strong marketing campaign.
- The ensemble cast should draw at least some attention.
- Online interest was high at one time back when the trailer debuted online, thanks partially to the involvement of the Wachowskis and the book's fan base.
- Flixster activity has been quite strong, with a high 98% "want to see" score across 28,000+ voters. 

CONS:

- The esoteric nature of the story could be off-putting for mainstream viewers.
- Following several breakouts in October on top of releasing one week before the start of the holiday movie-going season could lessen audience demand this weekend.
- The estimated 2,000 theater count is the lowest for a Wachowski-produced film since before The Matrix.
- The R rating and longer running time could serve to limit the audience even more. 
- Despite the strong Flixster activity, Twitter and Facebook buzz have been lacking. 

Silent Hill: Revelation

PROS:

- Being based on a popular video game gives it some built-in audience.
- Horror fans will be looking for this kind of movie on pre-Halloween weekend. 

CONS:

- The first film isn't exactly well-remembered.
- With Sinister and Paranormal Activity 4 having already opened over the past two weekends, that same horror audience has other options. 

Fun Size

PROS:

- Nickelodeon movies have a fairly successful history.
- The younger cast gives it a slight advantage in appealing to teens this weekend.

CONS:

- Younger audiences could easily skip this in the way that they skipped Prom.

Chasing Mavericks

PROS:

- Gerard Butler gives this otherwise low-profile film a recognizable face to attract audiences.
- The feel-good tale of the film could bring out families. 

CONS:

- With so much competition in the market, its hard to see a small release such as this breaking out with Hotel Transylvania still doing well and Wreck-It Ralph poised to interest families next week.
- Butler isn't exactly a guaranteed draw.
- The estimated 2,000 theater count will also hold back its audience potential. 

Check out the table below for our predictions on this weekend's top 12 films.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Argo Oct 12, 2012 Warner Bros.
$13,500,000 $62,000,000
Cloud Atlas Oct 26, 2012 Warner Bros.
$12,300,000 $12,300,000
Hotel Transylvania Sep 28, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$10,000,000 $130,900,000
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Oct 26, 2012 Open Road
$9,800,000 $9,800,000
Paranormal Activity 4 Oct 19, 2012 Paramount
$9,500,000 $43,300,000
Taken 2 Oct 5, 2012 Fox
$7,700,000 $117,100,000
Here Comes the Boom Oct 12, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$5,700,000 $30,800,000
Alex Cross Oct 19, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$5,200,000 $19,500,000
Fun Size Oct 26, 2012 Paramount
$5,000,000 $5,000,000
Sinister Oct 12, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$4,900,000 $39,300,000
Pitch Perfect Sep 28, 2012 Universal
$4,400,000 $51,800,000
Chasing Mavericks Oct 26, 2012 Fox
$4,300,000 $4,300,000

Shawn Robbins, Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill contributed to this article.

Tags: Chasing Mavericks, Fun Size, Silent Hill: Revelation 3D, Cloud Atlas

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