Weekend Predictions: 'Life of Pi', 'Red Dawn', 'Rise of the Guardians' & 'Silver Linings Playbook'
Featured Stories - on November 20, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff
Four new releases enter a very strong market over the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 and Skyfall still have so much momentum heading into the weekend that they probably won't fall from the #1 and #2 spots, respectively.
Life of Pi
PROS:
- Being based on a popular book gives it a built-in audience.
- The uplifting story is perfectly timed for the holiday season when audiences are looking for family fare.
CONS:
- The amount of competition in the November marketplace will make it hard to stand out.
- The trailers for the film are intentionally vague. That could turn off movie-goers who are used to being spoon fed plot points
Red Dawn
PROS:
- Star Chis Hemsworth is coming off the success of The Avengers.
CONS:
- The film's numerous production issues and soft marketing have long indicated this may be more of a "dumped" November title than a potential holiday hit.
- The original film isn't particularly well-known among today's audiences.
- Skyfall is still going strong.
Rise of the Guardians
PROS:
- Releasing during Thanksgiving weekend guarantees it some attention from families, especially given the holiday themes of the film.
- Disney has previously found a lot of success with the same release (see Enchanted and Tangled), so DreamWorks is hoping to capture something similar.
CONS:
- Wreck-It Ralph is still doing really well. It'll be tough for Rise of the Guardians to steal attention away from it.
- Reviews indicate that parts of the film are dark. Some families with young children could be turned off.
Silver Linings Playbook
PROS:
- Strong Oscar buzz.
- The Weinstein Company will put a lot behind this one now that The Master bombed.
- One of the year's most impressive ensemble casts.
CONS:
- Bradley Cooper's stardom is still growing and is thus not a proven box office draw. Same for Jennifer Lawrence.
- The subject of the film may not be as mainstream-friendly as O'Russell's previous hit, The Fighter.
Check out our predictions for these films and the rest of the weekend's top 10 in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Weekend Gross | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 | Nov 16, 2012 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$43,000,000 | $226,800,000 |
| Skyfall | Nov 8, 2012 | Sony / Columbia |
$30,500,000 | $214,800,000 |
| Rise of The Guardians | Nov 21, 2012 | Paramount / DreamWorks |
$26,500,000 | $37,000,000 |
| Lincoln | Nov 9, 2012 | Disney / DreamWorks |
$18,000,000 | $53,200,000 |
| Wreck-It Ralph | Nov 2, 2012 | Disney |
$15,000,000 | $146,800,000 |
| Life of Pi | Nov 21, 2012 | Fox |
$14,500,000 | $21,000,000 |
| Red Dawn (2012) | Nov 21, 2012 | FilmDistrict |
$12,500,000 | $19,000,000 |
| Flight | Nov 2, 2012 | Paramount |
$7,200,000 | $73,500,000 |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Nov 16, 2012 | Weinstein Company |
$3,500,000 | $5,300,000 |
| Argo | Oct 12, 2012 | Warner Bros. |
$3,400,000 | $97,700,000 |
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.
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