Weekend Predictions: 'Life of Pi', 'Red Dawn', 'Rise of the Guardians' & 'Silver Linings Playbook'

Featured Stories - on November 20, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

nov23.pngFour new releases enter a very strong market over the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2
and Skyfall still have so much momentum heading into the weekend that they probably won't fall from the #1 and #2 spots, respectively. 

Life of Pi

PROS:

- Being based on a popular book gives it a built-in audience.
- The uplifting story is perfectly timed for the holiday season when audiences are looking for family fare. 

CONS:

- The amount of competition in the November marketplace will make it hard to stand out.
- The trailers for the film are intentionally vague. That could turn off movie-goers who are used to being spoon fed plot points  

Red Dawn

PROS:

- Star Chis Hemsworth is coming off the success of The Avengers

CONS:

- The film's numerous production issues and soft marketing have long indicated this may be more of a "dumped" November title than a potential holiday hit.
- The original film isn't particularly well-known among today's audiences. 
- Skyfall is still going strong. 

Rise of the Guardians

PROS:

- Releasing during Thanksgiving weekend guarantees it some attention from families, especially given the holiday themes of the film.
- Disney has previously found a lot of success with the same release (see Enchanted and Tangled), so DreamWorks is hoping to capture something similar. 

CONS:

- Wreck-It Ralph is still doing really well. It'll be tough for Rise of the Guardians to steal attention away from it.
- Reviews indicate that parts of the film are dark. Some families with young children could be turned off. 

Silver Linings Playbook

PROS:

- Strong Oscar buzz.
- The Weinstein Company will put a lot behind this one now that The Master bombed.
- One of the year's most impressive ensemble casts. 

CONS:

- Bradley Cooper's stardom is still growing and is thus not a proven box office draw. Same for Jennifer Lawrence.
- The subject of the film may not be as mainstream-friendly as O'Russell's previous hit, The Fighter

Check out our predictions for these films and the rest of the weekend's top 10 in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Gross Cumulative
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 Nov 16, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$43,000,000 $226,800,000
Skyfall Nov 8, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$30,500,000 $214,800,000
Rise of The Guardians Nov 21, 2012 Paramount / DreamWorks
$26,500,000 $37,000,000
Lincoln Nov 9, 2012 Disney / DreamWorks
$18,000,000 $53,200,000
Wreck-It Ralph Nov 2, 2012 Disney
$15,000,000 $146,800,000
Life of Pi Nov 21, 2012 Fox
$14,500,000 $21,000,000
Red Dawn (2012) Nov 21, 2012 FilmDistrict
$12,500,000 $19,000,000
Flight Nov 2, 2012 Paramount
$7,200,000 $73,500,000
Silver Linings Playbook Nov 16, 2012 Weinstein Company
$3,500,000 $5,300,000
Argo Oct 12, 2012 Warner Bros.
$3,400,000 $97,700,000

 

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Red Dawn, Rise of the Guardians, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi

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