Long Range Forecast: 'Admission, 'The Croods' & 'Olympus Has Fallen'
Featured Stories - on January 26, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
Admission, The Croods and Olympus Has Fallen join our Long Range Forecast this weekend. Each is currently scheduled to open on Friday, March 22.
Admission
PROS:
- Tina Fey hasn't been in many films, but Baby Mama and Date Night both had very solid box office performances.
- The combination of Tina Fey and Paul Rudd could help the film appeal to date night audiences.
- The film could have a good chance of holding up well given the past box office history of both Fey and Rudd.
CONS:
- While they aren't the most direct competition, The Croods and Olympus Has Fallen will make the marketplace as a whole quite crowded that weekend.
- As a Focus release, likely won't receive an ultra-wide opening weekend location count.
The Croods
PROS:
- Competition for family audiences in March and April appears to be light, especially if parents keep younger children away from Oz: The Great and Powerful and G.I. Joe: Retaliation.
- DreamWorks Animation and Fox are sure to do everything they can to make their first collaboration a success.
- DreamWorks Animation has had good March performances in recent years with 2009's Monsters vs. Aliens and 2010's How to Train Your Dragon.
- Holding power is likely to be strong.
CONS:
- DreamWorks Animation is coming off of Rise of the Guardians, which delivered the studio's most disappointing performance in quite some time.
- Early marketing suggests that the film is lacking in the the cuteness department, which typically helps draw the attention of younger moviegoers.
Olympus Has Fallen
PROS:
- Will beat fellow White House under attack film White House Down to the punch by three months.
- The film boasts a strong ensemble cast headlined by Gerard Butler, Aaron Eckhart and Morgan Freeman.
CONS:
- Early internet reaction to the film's trailer appears to be mixed.
- Gerard Butler currently isn't anywhere near the box office draw he was only a few years ago.
- Likely to be front-loaded, especially with G.I. Joe: Retaliation opening just one week later.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include ...
Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Croods | Mar 22, 2013 | Fox / DreamWorks Animation |
$40,000,000 | $150,000,000 |
| Olympus Has Fallen | Mar 22, 2013 | FilmDistrict |
$18,000,000 | $48,000,000 |
| Admission | Mar 22, 2013 | Focus |
$15,000,000 | $50,000,000 |
| The Call | Mar 15, 2013 | Sony / TriStar |
$12,000,000 | $28,000,000 |
| The Incredible Burt Wonderstone | Mar 15, 2013 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
$17,000,000 | $52,000,000 |
| Dead Man Down | Mar 8, 2013 | FilmDistrict |
$9,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| Oz: The Great and Powerful | Mar 8, 2013 | Disney |
$55,000,000 | $160,000,000 |
| Jack the Giant Slayer | Mar 1, 2013 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
$23,000,000 | $60,000,000 |
| Phantom (2013) | Mar 1, 2013 | RCR Media Group |
$5,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| The Last Exorcism Part II | Mar 1, 2013 | CBS Films |
$11,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| 21 And Over | Mar 1, 2013 | Relativity Media |
$15,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| Dark Skies | Feb 22, 2013 | Weinstein / Dimension |
$10,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| Snitch (2013) | Feb 22, 2013 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$13,000,000 | $35,000,000 |
| A Good Day to Die Hard | Feb 14, 2013 | Fox |
$47,000,000* | $125,000,000 |
| Safe Haven | Feb 14, 2013 | Relativity Media |
$22,000,000* | $57,000,000 |
| Escape From Planet Earth | Feb 14, 2013 | Weinstein Company |
$15,000,000* | $40,000,000 |
| Beautiful Creatures (2013) | Feb 14, 2013 | Warner Bros. |
$21,000,000* | $55,000,000 |
| Identity Thief | Feb 8, 2013 | Universal |
$19,000,000 | $62,000,000 |
| Side Effects (2013) | Feb 8, 2013 | Open Road |
$21,000,000 | $65,000,000 |
| Warm Bodies | Feb 1, 2013 | Lionsgate / Summit |
$18,000,000 | $47,000,000 |
| Bullet to the Head | Feb 1, 2013 | Warner Bros. |
$7,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
* = 4-day weekend (Friday-Monday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.
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