Long Range Forecast: 'G.I. Joe: Retaliation', 'The Host' & 'Temptation'
Featured Stories - on February 02, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
Three films have been added to our Long Range Forecast this weekend: G.I. Joe: Retaliation, The Host and Tyler Perry's Temptation. All three films are scheduled to debut on Friday, March 29.
G.I. Joe: Retaliation
- The added presence of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (who will be attracting extra attention at the time for his WrestleMania appearance) and Bruce Willis within the cast.
- Channing Tatum is a bigger draw now than he was for the first film back in 2009.
- The shift in tone from the first film might attract older action fans and widen the demographic appeal.
- Will have a 3D boost that G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra didn't have.
- Easter isn't the easiest weekend to open a film (only two films have ever opened with more than $40 million on Easter weekend) and competition will be especially fierce this Easter.
- The last-minute delay of the film by nearly a year may have dampened the previous enthusiasm levels that existed last year.
- While not universally hated, the first film isn't something that most have clamored for a sequel to.
- The extent of Channing Tatum's role in this sequel still seems to be up in the air.
- Adaptations of young-adult fiction remain safe bets at the box office.
- Stephanie Meyer's Twilight follow-up is sure to draw media attention, though whether or not her name draws in Twilight fans to a non-Twilight film remains to be seen.
- Saoirse Ronan already has a following after her performances in Atonement, The Lovely Bones and Hanna.
- As mentioned, opening on Easter weekend isn't easy and this year will be especially crowded.
- Based on anticipation levels so far, the film is more likely to perform in line with adaptations such as Eragon and I Am Number Four rather than having a break-out performance.
- While he has a following, Andrew Niccol's previous films as a director haven't performed all that well at the box office.
Tyler Perry's Temptation
- Based on a pre-existing Tyler Perry play, which typically transfers into a stronger box office performance when it comes to Perry's films.
- Three previous Tyler Perry films have debuted on Easter weekend (Why Did I Get Married Too?, Madea's Big Happy Family and Meet the Browns), with opening weekend grosses for those three all falling within the $20 million to $30 million range.
- Both of Perry's non-Madea 2012 projects, Good Deeds and Alex Cross, failed to live up to box office expectations.
- Potential could be limited a bit from opening the same weekend as G.I. Joe: Retaliation.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Identity Thief and Side Effects.
Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Tyler Perry's Temptation||Mar 29, 2013||Lionsgate
|G.I. Joe: Retaliation||Mar 29, 2013||Paramount
|The Host (2013)||Mar 29, 2013||Open Road
|Admission||Mar 22, 2013||Focus
|The Croods||Mar 22, 2013||Fox / DreamWorks Animation
|Olympus Has Fallen||Mar 22, 2013||FilmDistrict
|The Incredible Burt Wonderstone||Mar 15, 2013||Warner Bros. / New Line
|The Call||Mar 15, 2013||Sony / TriStar
|Dead Man Down||Mar 8, 2013||FilmDistrict
|Oz: The Great and Powerful||Mar 8, 2013||Disney
|The Last Exorcism Part II||Mar 1, 2013||CBS Films
|21 And Over||Mar 1, 2013||Relativity Media
|Jack the Giant Slayer||Mar 1, 2013||Warner Bros. / New Line
|Phantom (2013)||Mar 1, 2013||RCR Media Group
|Dark Skies||Feb 22, 2013||Weinstein / Dimension
|Snitch (2013)||Feb 22, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|A Good Day to Die Hard||Feb 14, 2013||Fox
|Escape From Planet Earth||Feb 14, 2013||Weinstein Company
|Safe Haven||Feb 14, 2013||Relativity Media
|Beautiful Creatures (2013)||Feb 14, 2013||Warner Bros.
|Side Effects (2013)||Feb 8, 2013||Open Road
|Identity Thief||Feb 8, 2013||Universal
* = 4-day weekend (Friday-Monday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.