Long Range Forecast: 'The Conjuring', 'R.I.P.D.', Red 2' & 'Turbo'
Featured Stories - on May 24, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
Four upcoming releases have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week, including July 17's Turbo and July 19's The Conjuring, R.I.P.D., and Red 2.
- Even middle-tier animated films tend to do well in the middle of summer.
- The trailer is energetic and fun. Selling the film as Fast & Furious for kids could pay off.
- Opening in between Despicable Me 2 and The Smurfs 2 won't do it many favors.
- It's always difficult to launch an animated film that isn't based on an established brand.
- Early online buzz has been noticeably strong.
- The horror genre continues to deliver sleeper hits, with this year's Mama being a recent example.
- Horror fans will have been starved for something new by the time this releases.
- Will opening in the middle of summer prove to be a stroke of genius for the sleeper horror trend, or backfire in the midst of a relatively busy market?
- If The Purge breaks out in a major way, it could end up hurting The Conjuring slightly.
- Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds provide some recognizable names and faces to attract audiences with.
- Online buzz and reactions to the trailer have been generally negative. We're reminded of the reaction to 2010's Jonah Hex.
- Opening after Pacific Rim and before The Wolverine could diminish interest in yet another special effects-driven summer movie.
- Ryan Reynolds' inability to draw audiences at the box office.
- Older audiences are more likely to opt for Red 2 on the same weekend.
- The first film was a surprise hit in late 2010, grossing over $90 million.
- The ensemble cast led by Bruce Willis should cater strongly to adult audiences.
- Willis is coming off a domestic disappointment earlier this year in A Good Day to Die Hard.
- Not all sequels grow expand their predecessor's audience (see last year's The Expendables 2).
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Man of Steel (up), After Earth (down), The Purge (up) and Now You See Me (up).
Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|R.I.P.D.||Jul 19, 2013||Universal
|The Conjuring||Jul 19, 2013||Warner Bros.
|Red 2||Jul 19, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|Turbo||Jul 17, 2013||Fox / DreamWorks Animation
|Pacific Rim||Jul 12, 2013||Warner Bros.
|Grown Ups 2||Jul 12, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|Despicable Me 2||Jul 3, 2013||Universal
|The Lone Ranger||Jul 3, 2013||Disney
|The Heat||Jun 28, 2013||Fox
|White House Down||Jun 28, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|Monsters University||Jun 21, 2013||Disney
|World War Z||Jun 21, 2013||Paramount
|Man of Steel||Jun 14, 2013||Warner Bros.
|This Is The End||Jun 12, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|The Internship||Jun 7, 2013||Fox
|The Purge||Jun 7, 2013||Universal
|After Earth||May 31, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|Now You See Me||May 31, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
* = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)
** = 4-day weekend (Fri-Mon)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.