Weekend Forecast: 'After Earth' & 'Now You See Me'

Featured Stories - on May 29, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

may31.pngOn the heels of a record-breaking Memorial Day frame, two new releases enter the market this weekend: After Earth and Now You See Me.

After Earth

PROS:

- The combined appeal of Will Smith and his son, Jaden, could help target both older and younger viewers.
- The sci-fi genre has become more accepted by general moviegoers in recent years.
- Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster activity compare well against this year's Oblivion

CONS:

- For a would-be summer blockbuster featuring Will Smith, buzz is noticeably lacking.
- Early negative reviews could curb audience desire to catch the film after a busy holiday weekend.
- The over-crowded marketplace with already well-received films in play (Fast & Furious 6 and Star Trek Into Darkness).
- As the third sci-fi flick to open in the past month, are audiences over-exposed to the genre?
- M. Night Shyamalan's directorial efforts have been at the center of criticism for almost nine years. However, his name has been mostly absent from marketing. 

Now You See Me

PROS:

- The ensemble cast featuring Jesse Eisenberg, Michael Caine, and Morgan Freeman could help the film stand out among both teens and adults.
- 2008's 21 opened well with a similar premise, on its way to becoming a sleeper hit.
- 2003's The Italian Job opened with nearly $20 million (before inflation) on the same weekend following a similarly busy holiday.
- Flixster and Twitter activity are encouraging. 

CONS:

- Following a busy holiday frame with a still-crowded marketplace won't be easy and could make it more about the legs for this.
- Movies about magic have hard a time finding success with mainstream crowds.

Our final domestic gross forecasts are $100 million for After Earth and $72 million for Now You See Me.

Check out our forecast for these films and the remainder of the weekend's top 10 in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, June 2, 2013
Fast & Furious 6 May 24, 2013 Universal
$38,200,000 $174,500,000
After Earth May 31, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$36,400,000 $36,400,000
Now You See Me May 31, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$23,000,000 $23,000,000
Star Trek Into Darkness May 16, 2013 Paramount
$19,300,000 $184,200,000
Epic May 24, 2013 Fox
$17,900,000 $66,500,000
The Hangover Part III May 23, 2013 Warner Bros.
$15,200,000 $87,300,000
Iron Man 3 May 3, 2013 Disney
$10,200,000 $387,000,000
The Great Gatsby (2013) May 10, 2013 Warner Bros.
$7,200,000 $129,200,000
Mud Apr 26, 2013 Roadside Attractions
$1,750,000 $17,400,000
Frances Ha May 17, 2013 IFC Films
$750,000 $1,800,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Now You See Me, After Earth

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