Weekend Forecast: 'After Earth' & 'Now You See Me'
Featured Stories - on May 29, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
On the heels of a record-breaking Memorial Day frame, two new releases enter the market this weekend: After Earth and Now You See Me.
- The combined appeal of Will Smith and his son, Jaden, could help target both older and younger viewers.
- The sci-fi genre has become more accepted by general moviegoers in recent years.
- Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster activity compare well against this year's Oblivion.
- For a would-be summer blockbuster featuring Will Smith, buzz is noticeably lacking.
- Early negative reviews could curb audience desire to catch the film after a busy holiday weekend.
- The over-crowded marketplace with already well-received films in play (Fast & Furious 6 and Star Trek Into Darkness).
- As the third sci-fi flick to open in the past month, are audiences over-exposed to the genre?
- M. Night Shyamalan's directorial efforts have been at the center of criticism for almost nine years. However, his name has been mostly absent from marketing.
Now You See Me
- The ensemble cast featuring Jesse Eisenberg, Michael Caine, and Morgan Freeman could help the film stand out among both teens and adults.
- 2008's 21 opened well with a similar premise, on its way to becoming a sleeper hit.
- 2003's The Italian Job opened with nearly $20 million (before inflation) on the same weekend following a similarly busy holiday.
- Flixster and Twitter activity are encouraging.
- Following a busy holiday frame with a still-crowded marketplace won't be easy and could make it more about the legs for this.
- Movies about magic have hard a time finding success with mainstream crowds.
Our final domestic gross forecasts are $100 million for After Earth and $72 million for Now You See Me.
Check out our forecast for these films and the remainder of the weekend's top 10 in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, June 2, 2013|
|Fast & Furious 6||May 24, 2013||Universal
|After Earth||May 31, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|Now You See Me||May 31, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|Star Trek Into Darkness||May 16, 2013||Paramount
|Epic||May 24, 2013||Fox
|The Hangover Part III||May 23, 2013||Warner Bros.
|Iron Man 3||May 3, 2013||Disney
|The Great Gatsby (2013)||May 10, 2013||Warner Bros.
|Mud||Apr 26, 2013||Roadside Attractions
|Frances Ha||May 17, 2013||IFC Films
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.