Long Range Forecast: 'Gravity' & 'Runner Runner'

Featured Stories - on August 09, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

oct4.pngOur Long Range Forecast takes a first look at October this week with the addition of Gravity and Runner Runner. Both are slated to open on Friday, October 4.

Gravity

PROS:

- The combined star power of Sandra Bullock and George Clooney.
- Director Alfonso Cuaron's considerable fan base and critical success from 2006's Children of Men.
- After a slow September, Gravity could be a major draw for adult audiences.
- Potential awards buzz could drive the film. 
- Very positive online trailer reactions. 

CONS:

- The concept has been compared, often unfavorably, to that of Open Water.
- Cuaron's name isn't necessarily a box office draw.
- Clooney previously starred in a similar sci-fi film, Solaris, which disappointed at the box office.
- Opening against Runner Runner could hinder opening weekend potential given the resurgeance of Ben Affleck's career. 

Runner Runner

PROS:

- The combined star power of Ben Affleck and Justin Timberlake.
- Affleck's success with Argo and The Town may convince audiences to check this one out, even though he doesn't carry the leading role.
- Timberlake will be releasing another album around the time of the film's release--perfect marketing synergy. 
- Director Brad Furman's The Lincoln Lawyer displayed solid holding power in 2011. 

CONS:

- Timberlake has yet to prove himself a box office draw, with 2011's In Time performing very modestly.
- With Affleck not being behind the camera for this film, long term prospects compared to Affleck's recent films are more questionable right now.
- Opening against Gravity could hinder opening weekend potential given its arguably stronger opposing star power. 

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Kick-Ass 2 (down), Lee Daniels' The Butler (up), Paranoia (down), and Jobs (down on domestic total).

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Runner Runner Oct 4, 2013 Fox
$18,000,000 $55,000,000
Gravity Oct 4, 2013 Warner Bros.
$26,000,000 $85,000,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sep 27, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$40,000,000 $148,000,000
Don Jon Sep 27, 2013 Relativity Media
$9,000,000 $27,000,000
Baggage Claim Sep 27, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Rush (2013) Sep 20, 2013 Universal
$15,000,000 $43,000,000
Battle of the Year Sep 20, 2013 Sony / Screen Gems
$9,000,000 $22,000,000
Prisoners Sep 20, 2013 Warner Bros.
$19,000,000 $70,000,000
Insidious Chapter 2 Sep 13, 2013 FilmDistrict
$30,000,000 $68,000,000
The Family (2013) Sep 13, 2013 Relativity Media
$13,000,000 $40,000,000
Riddick Sep 6, 2013 Universal
$25,000,000 $60,000,000
Getaway Aug 30, 2013 Warner Bros.
$11,000,000* $23,000,000
One Direction: This Is Us Aug 30, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$19,000,000* $38,000,000
Closed Circuit Aug 28, 2013 Focus
$6,000,000* $15,000,000
You're Next Aug 23, 2013 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $26,000,000
The World's End Aug 23, 2013 Focus
$11,000,000 $33,000,000
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones Aug 21, 2013 Sony / Screen Gems
$15,000,000 $42,000,000
Jobs Aug 16, 2013 Open Road
$10,000,000 $27,000,000
Paranoia Aug 16, 2013 Relativity Media
$9,000,000 $27,000,000
Lee Daniels' The Butler Aug 16, 2013 Weinstein Company
$19,000,000 $78,000,000
Kick-Ass 2 Aug 16, 2013 Universal
$23,000,000 $52,000,000

* = 4-day weekend

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 

Tags: Gravity, Runner Runner

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