Long Range Forecast: 'The Hunger Games: Catching Fire' & 'Delivery Man'
Featured Stories - on September 27, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff
The highly anticipated first sequel to The Hunger Games, Catching Fire, joins our Long Range Forecast this week. Vince Vaughn's Delivery Man is also highlighted.
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
- The first film became a phenomenon even prior to release, earning a record-setting $152.5 million opening weekend.
- Jennifer Lawrence's stardom has increased exponentially since the first film thanks to her Oscar-winning turn in Silver Linings Playbook.
- The original's domestic longevity was also solid, banking a massive $408 million by the end of its run.
- Not surprisingly, social network buzz has been consistently through the roof for Catching Fire.
- The addition of an IMAX run will boost ticket sales, particularly upfront.
- Rarely have first films in a franchise posted multipliers below 3 before seeing their follow-ups go on to outperform them.
- Similar to the trend of the first Harry Potter films in 2001 and 2002, curiosity outside the fan base may have peaked with the first film.
- Whereas the original flick faced little competition in March/April 2012, Catching Fire will face a more crowded holiday market.
- Audiences looking for a comedy won't have many other choices at the time.
- Vaughn's Fred Claus opened modestly before enjoying respectable legs during the 2007 holiday season.
- Vince Vaughn hasn't delivered a box office hit in awhile. The poor performance of The Internship worries us.
- Catching Fire will undoubtedly swallow up the film's potential young adult audience.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Gravity (up), Runner Runner (down) and Last Vegas (down).
Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Delivery Man||Nov 22, 2013||Disney / DreamWorks
|The Hunger Games: Catching Fire||Nov 22, 2013||Lionsgate
|The Wolf of Wall Street||Nov 15, 2013||Paramount
|The Best Man Holiday||Nov 15, 2013||Universal
|The Book Thief||Nov 15, 2013||Fox
|Thor: The Dark World||Nov 8, 2013||Disney
|Last Vegas||Nov 1, 2013||CBS Films
|About Time||Nov 1, 2013||Universal
|Free Birds||Nov 1, 2013||Relativity Media
|Ender's Game||Nov 1, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|The Counselor||Oct 25, 2013||Fox
|Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa||Oct 25, 2013||Paramount
|Escape Plan||Oct 18, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|Carrie (2013)||Oct 18, 2013||Sony / Screen Gems
|Machete Kills||Oct 11, 2013||Open Road
|Captain Phillips||Oct 11, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|Runner Runner||Oct 4, 2013||Fox
|Gravity||Oct 4, 2013||Warner Bros.
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.