Long Range Forecast: 'The Hunger Games: Catching Fire' & 'Delivery Man'

Featured Stories - on September 27, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff

nov22.pngThe highly anticipated first sequel to The Hunger Games, Catching Fire, joins our Long Range Forecast this week. Vince Vaughn's Delivery Man is also highlighted.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PROS:

- The first film became a phenomenon even prior to release, earning a record-setting $152.5 million opening weekend.
- Jennifer Lawrence's stardom has increased exponentially since the first film thanks to her Oscar-winning turn in Silver Linings Playbook.
- The original's domestic longevity was also solid, banking a massive $408 million by the end of its run.
- Not surprisingly, social network buzz has been consistently through the roof for Catching Fire.
- The addition of an IMAX run will boost ticket sales, particularly upfront. 

CONS:

- Rarely have first films in a franchise posted multipliers below 3 before seeing their follow-ups go on to outperform them.
- Similar to the trend of the first Harry Potter films in 2001 and 2002, curiosity outside the fan base may have peaked with the first film.
- Whereas the original flick faced little competition in March/April 2012, Catching Fire will face a more crowded holiday market.

Delivery Man

PROS:

- Audiences looking for a comedy won't have many other choices at the time.
- Vaughn's Fred Claus opened modestly before enjoying respectable legs during the 2007 holiday season.

CONS:

- Vince Vaughn hasn't delivered a box office hit in awhile. The poor performance of The Internship worries us.
- Catching Fire will undoubtedly swallow up the film's potential young adult audience. 

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Gravity (up), Runner Runner (down) and Last Vegas (down).

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Delivery Man Nov 22, 2013 Disney / DreamWorks
$12,000,000 $41,000,000
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Nov 22, 2013 Lionsgate
$168,000,000 $390,000,000
The Wolf of Wall Street Nov 15, 2013 Paramount
$32,000,000 $115,000,000
The Best Man Holiday Nov 15, 2013 Universal
$15,000,000 $45,000,000
The Book Thief Nov 15, 2013 Fox
$7,000,000 $40,000,000
Thor: The Dark World Nov 8, 2013 Disney
$91,000,000 $235,000,000
Last Vegas Nov 1, 2013 CBS Films
$18,000,000 $65,000,000
About Time Nov 1, 2013 Universal
$11,000,000 $45,000,000
Free Birds Nov 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$20,000,000 $80,000,000
Ender's Game Nov 1, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$30,000,000 $80,000,000
The Counselor Oct 25, 2013 Fox
$19,000,000 $65,000,000
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Oct 25, 2013 Paramount
$27,000,000 $62,000,000
Escape Plan Oct 18, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$12,000,000 $30,000,000
Carrie (2013) Oct 18, 2013 Sony / Screen Gems
$21,000,000 $50,000,000
Machete Kills Oct 11, 2013 Open Road
$10,500,000 $24,000,000
Captain Phillips Oct 11, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$18,000,000 $72,000,000
Runner Runner Oct 4, 2013 Fox
$14,000,000 $40,000,000
Gravity Oct 4, 2013 Warner Bros.
$39,000,000 $130,000,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 

Tags: Delivery Man, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

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