Long Range Forecast: 'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug' & 'A Madea Christmas'

Featured Stories - on October 18, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff

ilbo.pngDecember 13 will see the release of Peter Jackson's The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, as well as Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas. Check out our initial forecasts below.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

PROS:

- Jackson's Middle-earth film adaptations continue to be popular with family audiences and many fans.
- Opening several weeks after Catching Fire and a month after Thor: The Dark World gives it enough room to play as December's primary tentpole release.
- Early trailer reactions have been more positive than those of An Unexpected Journey, thanks in part to the promise of Benedict Cumberbatch's Smaug, the expanded cast (including the return of Orlando Bloom), and a more action-driven plot.
- Social network activity is very encouraging, particularly across Flixster (where the film boasts a 99 percent anticipation score) and Facebook.
- Expectations will be lowered without the significant hype that preceded the previous film.

CONS:

- An Unexpected Journey was met with lukewarm reactions from critics and some fans, meaning lowered upfront demand is somewhat likely.
- Matching the performance of the previous entry will be difficult without the decade-long build-up of anticipation.
- Thor: The Dark World and/or Catching Fire may steal some of the film's thunder as the holiday season's biggest attraction(s).
- Will fans and adult audiences who turned away from the previous film come back for a second chance at the new trilogy?

Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas

PROS:

- Perry's Madea character has proven to retain popularity over his films that don't feature "her".
- The Christmas release could be lucrative given the lack of films targeting urban audiences.
- Mainstream Christmas-centric films in general tend to perform respectably, at least, around the holidays.

CONS:

- Perry's recent films haven't found quite the same box office success they enjoyed several years ago.
- Are audiences getting burnt out on Madea yet?

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Jackass: Bad Grandpa (down), The Counselor (down) and we have removed The Wolf of Wall Street from the list. 

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas Dec 13, 2013 Lionsgate
$25,000,000 $68,000,000
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug Dec 13, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$82,000,000 $280,000,000
Out of the Furnace Dec 6, 2013 Relativity Media
$9,000,000 $35,000,000
Black Nativity Nov 27, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$12,000,000* $36,000,000
Homefront Nov 27, 2013 Open Road
$7,000,000* $20,000,000
Oldboy (2013) Nov 27, 2013 FilmDistrict
$10,000,000* $28,000,000
Frozen (2013) Nov 22, 2013 Disney
$38,000,000 $170,000,000
Delivery Man Nov 22, 2013 Disney / DreamWorks
$12,000,000 $41,000,000
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Nov 22, 2013 Lionsgate
$168,000,000 $390,000,000
The Best Man Holiday Nov 15, 2013 Universal
$15,000,000 $45,000,000
Thor: The Dark World Nov 8, 2013 Disney
$91,000,000 $235,000,000
Free Birds Nov 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$20,000,000 $80,000,000
Ender's Game Nov 1, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$30,000,000 $80,000,000
Last Vegas Nov 1, 2013 CBS Films
$18,000,000 $60,000,000
About Time Nov 1, 2013 Universal
$11,000,000 $45,000,000
The Counselor Oct 25, 2013 Fox
$14,000,000 $45,000,000
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Oct 25, 2013 Paramount
$24,000,000 $58,000,000

* = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 

Tags: Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

5 Comments

  • Grant on 18 October 2013

    Obviously, "The Wolf of Wall Street" will be missing it's intended Nov 15 release date?

  • Roshan_Love_film on 21 October 2013

    I do agree with the long range predictions of Hobbit 2.. Hope it collects well in the overseas to once again cross the 1 billion mark.

  • Roshan_Love_film on 21 October 2013

    I think it`s postponed..They felt the movie is in a tight situation with Hunger Games 2 and Thor 2 coming after and before it.... A December date would be healthy for the movie, given the casting and trailers

  • Grant on 22 October 2013

    Actually, I found there was disagreement between Scorsese and Paramount over the 3 hour running time. They're hoping for Christmas, but it may bumped to 2013. If they make the Christmas release, "Jack Ryan" is pushed to MLK weekend. So there's a gap in the November box office that an older-skewing drama should swoop in and take. I think Disney should move up "Saving Mr. Banks," but that would require a fast marketing blitz.

  • Grant on 22 October 2013

    *I mean 2014. Similar to what happened to "Shutter Island"

What do you think?