Long Range Forecast: 'Divergent' and 'Muppets Most Wanted'

Featured Stories - on January 24, 2014 by BoxOffice Staff

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This week, BoxOffice adds Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted to our Long Range Forecast. Both films are scheduled to open on March 21.

Divergent
(Lionsgate/Summit)

PROS:

- According to Amazon, the Divergent book series is currently more popular than The Hunger Games series. That's no small accomplishment.
- Thanks to her endearing performance in The Spectacular Now, star Shailene Woodley is building a sizable fanbase of her own.
- Co-star Kate Winslet could entice more adults to give the film a try.
- The Hunger Games franchise also launched in March, and that turned out pretty well.
- Lionsgate's prowess when it comes to marketing The Hunger Games franchise should be easily applicable to Divergent.
- Films with strong female protagonists are on fire at the box office these days. (See Catching Fire, Gravity, The Heat, etc.) 

CONS:

- Moviegoers who haven't read the books may label Divergent as a Hunger Games rip-off.
- Will men be interested? Key female demos can certainly drive the box office, but roping in Males 18-34 wouldn't hurt.

Muppets Most Wanted
(Disney)

PROS:

- 2011's The Muppets was welcomed with open arms. There's still plenty of goodwill left for the sequel.
- The addition of Tina Fey could help entice key female demos.
- Is anybody better at marketing wholesome entertainment to families than Disney? We don't think so. 
- The commercial that aired during the Golden Globes led to a wave of enthusiasm on Facebook and Twitter. 
 

CONS:

- Will fans of the original be upset that Jason Segel and Amy Adams haven't returned?
- There are three films that could seriously dilute Muppets Most Wanted's drawing power: Frozen, The LEGO Movie and Mr. Peabody & Sherman.  

Check out our predictions for these films and others in the table below. Notable changes this week include This Awkward Moment (up), Labor Day (down), The Monuments Men (up) and Son of God (up).

Title Release Date Distributor First Weekend of Wide Release Cumulative
Divergent Mar 21, 2014 Lionsgate / Summit
$50,000,000 $120,000,000
Muppets Most Wanted Mar 21, 2014 Disney
$21,000,000 $57,000,000
Need For Speed Mar 14, 2014 Disney / DreamWorks
$21,000,000 $53,000,000
Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club Mar 14, 2014 Lionsgate
$16,000,000 $36,000,000
300: Rise of an Empire Mar 7, 2014 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $43,000,000
Mr. Peabody & Sherman Mar 7, 2014 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$27,000,000 $102,000,000
Non-Stop (2014) Feb 28, 2014 Universal
$21,000,000 $62,000,000
Welcome to Yesterday Feb 28, 2014 Paramount
$18,000,000 $43,000,000
Son of God Feb 28, 2014 Fox
$11,000,000 $37,000,000
3 Days to Kill Feb 21, 2014 Relativity Media
$12,000,000 $35,000,000
Pompeii Feb 21, 2014 Sony / TriStar
$15,000,000 $36,000,000
Endless Love (2014) Feb 14, 2014 Universal
$17,000,000** $34,000,000
About Last Night Feb 14, 2014 Sony / Screen Gems
$28,000,000** $61,000,000
Winter's Tale Feb 14, 2014 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000** $31,000,000
Robocop (2014) Feb 12, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$25,000,000** $57,000,000
The Monuments Men Feb 7, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$24,000,000 $83,000,000
The LEGO Movie Feb 7, 2014 Warner Bros.
$41,000,000 $150,000,000
Vampire Academy Feb 7, 2014 Weinstein Company
$8,000,000 $20,000,000
That Awkward Moment Jan 31, 2014 Focus / FilmDistrict
$12,000,000 $32,000,000
Labor Day (2013) Jan 31, 2014 Paramount
$5,000,000 $13,000,000

*4-day weekend

Tags: Muppets Most Wanted, Divergent

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