Long Range Forecast: 'Noah', 'Bad Words' and 'Sabotage'

Featured Stories - on January 31, 2014 by BoxOffice Staff

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This week, BoxOffice adds Noah, Bad Words and Sabotage to our Long Range Forecast. 

Noah
(Paramount)

PROS:

- When it comes to a story that plenty of people are familiar with, you'd be hard-pressed to top the Noah tale.
- Russell Crowe appearing in another epic should bring back fond memories of Gladiator for many viewers.
- Releasing the film before Easter will help entice religious crowds.
- Co-star Emma Watson will help the film appeal to younger viewers.
- Paramount is wisely advertising the film during the Super Bowl. That kind of exposure should help Noah substantially.

CONS:

- There are reports that director Darren Aronofsky and Paramount are feuding over the film. (For what it's worth, Aronofsky denies them.) Also, those same reports claim that test screenings for religious crowds did not go well. If the reports are true, then the film could be in trouble after--or even during--its opening weekend.
- Russell Crowe has a pretty spotty track record at the box office that can't be ignored.
- If Son of God overperforms earlier in the year it could take a small bite out of Noah's haul.
- Religious crowds are fickle. They'll turn on a film as quickly as they'll embrace it. 
 

Bad Words
(Focus) 

PROS:

- Early reactions to the first trailer are mostly positive.
- Reviews out of the Toronto International Film Festival were encouraging. 
- Jason Bateman is on a roll lately thanks to Horrible Bosses and Identity Thief.

CONS:

- Dark comedies with mean-spirited protagonists are often a tough sell. (See 2011's Young Adult.) 
- Bateman can't be given full credit for the success of Horrible Bosses and Identity Thief. He was part of an impressive ensemble in Bosses, and Melissa McCarthy deserves more credit for the success of Thief.

Sabotage
(Open Road)

PROS:

- Distributor Open Road has found success in the action genre with the likes of The Grey and End of Watch.
- Arnold Schwarzenegger is still very good at generating free publicity. 

CONS:

- We're worried that the market is just too crowded for Sabotage to truly take off.
- Arnold may be back, but the paying public doesn't seem interested. The Last Stand and Escape Plan both bombed at home. The actor clearly needs to stick with established properties. 

Check out our predictions for these films and other upcoming releases in the table below. Notable changes this week include The Monuments Men (down), The LEGO Movie (down), Vampire Academy (down) and Robocop (up).

Title Release Date Distributor First Weekend of Wide Release Cumulative
Noah Mar 28, 2014 Paramount
$47,000,000 $144,000,000
Sabotage (2014) Mar 28, 2014 Open Road
$7,000,000 $15,000,000
Muppets Most Wanted Mar 21, 2014 Disney
$21,000,000 $57,000,000
Divergent Mar 21, 2014 Lionsgate / Summit
$50,000,000 $120,000,000
Bad Words Mar 14, 2014 Focus
$12,000,000 $40,000,000
Need For Speed Mar 14, 2014 Disney / DreamWorks
$21,000,000 $53,000,000
Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club Mar 14, 2014 Lionsgate
$16,000,000 $36,000,000
300: Rise of an Empire Mar 7, 2014 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $43,000,000
Mr. Peabody & Sherman Mar 7, 2014 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$27,000,000 $102,000,000
Non-Stop (2014) Feb 28, 2014 Universal
$21,000,000 $62,000,000
Son of God Feb 28, 2014 Fox
$11,000,000 $37,000,000
Welcome to Yesterday Feb 28, 2014 Paramount
$18,000,000 $43,000,000
Pompeii Feb 21, 2014 Sony / TriStar
$15,000,000 $36,000,000
3 Days to Kill Feb 21, 2014 Relativity Media
$11,000,000 $32,000,000
Endless Love (2014) Feb 14, 2014 Universal
$17,000,000 $34,000,000
Winter's Tale Feb 14, 2014 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000 $31,000,000
About Last Night Feb 14, 2014 Sony / Screen Gems
$28,000,000 $61,000,000
Robocop (2014) Feb 12, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$26,000,000 $60,000,000
The Monuments Men Feb 7, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$24,000,000 $74,000,000
Vampire Academy Feb 7, 2014 Weinstein Company
$6,000,000 $16,000,000
The LEGO Movie Feb 7, 2014 Warner Bros.
$40,000,000 $133,000,000

*4-day weekend

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 
 

Tags: Sabotage, Bad Words, Noah

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