Long Range Forecast: 'Jersey Boys'

Featured Stories - on April 25, 2014 by BoxOffice Staff

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On June 20th, moviegoers who are sick of explosions, superheroes, car chases and other CGI-infused mayhem will get a breath of fresh air in the form of Jersey Boys, director Clint Eastwood's adaptation of the wildly popular Broadway musical. Will Jersey Boys join the list of successful musical adaptations that includes Chicago and Mamma Mia! or will it be this year's Rock of Ages? BoxOffice takes a closer look at the film's commercial prospects this week. 

Jersey Boys
(Warner Bros.)

PROS: 

- The play has been running successfully since 2005. You can't put a price on the brand recognition that comes from that kind of run.
- Never underestimate the power of a strong piece of counterprogramming during the summer season. It's important to remember that Mamma Mia! opened during the same weekend as The Dark Knight in 2008.
- Moviegoers over the age of 35 are going to be this film's core audience. Even though that group may not rush out opening weekend, they are a loyal bunch when given content that connects. As a result, Jersey Boys could show serious staying power. 

CONS:

- For every successful musical adaptation there is always at least one dud. Let's not forget the poor performance of Rock of Ages in Summer 2012.
- Other than Christopher Walken, the cast is full of faces that most people won't recognize.
- This isn't likely to cross over in a substantial way with twentysomething moviegoers the way that other musicals could.
- Opening one week after two of the strongest films of the summer--How To Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street--will not be an easy task. 

Check out our prediction for Jersey Boys and others in the table below. 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Think Like a Man Too Jun 20, 2014 Sony / Screen Gems
$37,000,000 $95,000,000
Jersey Boys Jun 20, 2014 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000 $47,000,000
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Jun 13, 2014 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$78,000,000 $298,000,000
22 Jump Street Jun 13, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$48,000,000 $143,000,000
Edge of Tomorrow Jun 6, 2014 Warner Bros.
$33,000,000 $93,000,000
The Fault in Our Stars Jun 6, 2014 Fox
$29,000,000 $88,000,000
A Million Ways to Die in the West May 30, 2014 Universal
$27,000,000 $73,000,000
Maleficent May 30, 2014 Disney
$61,000,000 $191,000,000
X-Men: Days of Future Past May 23, 2014 Fox
$108,000,000* $230,000,000
Blended May 23, 2014 Warner Bros.
$24,000,000* $56,000,000
Godzilla (2014) May 16, 2014 Warner Bros.
$75,000,000 $235,000,000
Million Dollar Arm May 16, 2014 Disney
$15,000,000 $60,000,000
Neighbors (2014) May 9, 2014 Universal
$34,000,000 $126,000,000
Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return May 9, 2014 Clarius Entertainment
$4,000,000 $11,000,000
Moms' Night Out May 9, 2014 Sony / AFFIRM
$5,000,000 $12,000,000
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 May 2, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$102,000,000 $242,000,000

*4-day weekend

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 
 

Tags: Jersey Boys, predictions

1 Comment

  • kelvintage on 26 April 2014

    Nice job lowering The Crappy Spider-Man's opening weekend. I was wondering when you boys and girls would wake up from your drug-induced daze.

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