Long Range Forecast: 'Transformers: Age of Extinction'

Featured Stories - on May 02, 2014 by BoxOffice Staff

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Michael Bay has joined forces with star Mark Wahlberg--easily one of the most reliable leading men working today--for another installment in the wildly popular Transformers franchise. It's been three years since the last Transformers film grossed $352 million at home and another $765 million overseas. Is the franchise still healthy or has it passed its prime? BoxOffice takes a closer look at the commercial prospects for Transformers: Age of Extinction this week. 

Transformers: Age of Extinction
(Paramount)

PROS: 

- Will anybody really miss Shia LaBeouf? We doubt it. Mark Wahlberg carries a lot more drawing power on his own than LaBeouf.
- Age of Extinction's June 27 release date is ideal. The sci-fi flick won't face any major opposition until Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opens on July 11.
- Facebook activity has been strong for months. The official Transformers page is rapidly heading for 31 million likes. 
- Michael Bay's style of blockbuster filmmaking may not be popular with critics, but the paying public has been embracing it for years. We don't think they'll stop now.

CONS:

- Franchises tend to dip when they hit the fourth film. Just look at what happened with Shrek and Pirates of the Caribbean
- It's possible that a three year gap could be a bit harmful.

Check out our predictions for these films and others in the table below. Key changes this week include Neighbors (up) and Million Dollar Arm (up). 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Transformers: Age of Extinction Jun 27, 2014 Paramount
$115,000,000 $320,000,000
Jersey Boys Jun 20, 2014 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000 $47,000,000
Think Like a Man Too Jun 20, 2014 Sony / Screen Gems
$37,000,000 $95,000,000
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Jun 13, 2014 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$78,000,000 $298,000,000
22 Jump Street Jun 13, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$48,000,000 $143,000,000
Edge of Tomorrow Jun 6, 2014 Warner Bros.
$33,000,000 $93,000,000
The Fault in Our Stars Jun 6, 2014 Fox
$29,000,000 $88,000,000
A Million Ways to Die in the West May 30, 2014 Universal
$27,000,000 $73,000,000
Maleficent May 30, 2014 Disney
$58,000,000 $182,000,000
X-Men: Days of Future Past May 23, 2014 Fox
$108,000,000* $230,000,000
Blended May 23, 2014 Warner Bros.
$24,000,000* $56,000,000
Million Dollar Arm May 16, 2014 Disney
$16,000,000 $65,000,000
Godzilla (2014) May 16, 2014 Warner Bros.
$75,000,000 $235,000,000
Moms' Night Out May 9, 2014 Sony / AFFIRM
$4,000,000 $10,000,000
Neighbors (2014) May 9, 2014 Universal
$38,000,000 $137,000,000
Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return May 9, 2014 Clarius Entertainment
$3,000,000 $8,500,000

*4-day weekend

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.  

Tags: Transformers: Age of Extinction, predictions

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