OVERSEAS FORECAST: 'Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit' Eyes Healthy Haul

on January 16, 2014

jackraynstill.jpgBy Daniel Loria and Phil Contrino

Paramount hopes to revive a lucrative brand with this weekend's release of Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit. Will it succeed overseas? We weigh the Pros/Cons below.

PROS:

- Thor proved that Jack Ryan director Kenneth Branagh can launch a major franchise with cross-quadrant appeal. 

- Little competition from comparable genre films on the release slate might pay off big in action-friendly markets like Russia.

- Kevin Costner certainly has a lot of overseas recognition. As does co-star/love interest Keira Knightley. Knightley should help boost grosses in the UK. 

CONS:

- Star Chris Pine has yet to prove that he can carry a brand on his own. He obviously doesn't deserve full credit for reviving Star Trek since it was more of an ensemble effort.

- Recent headlines on the NSA and U.S. spying abroad don't exactly paint American spies in the best light. A pro-government U.S. spy might not have the same success overseas as a rogue agent (Bourne) or the generational cross-over appeal of '60s nostalgia (Bond).

- This is basically a new franchise for Males Under 25, arguably the film's most important quadrant. The last time Jack Ryan appeared in theaters was in May 2002. An entire generation has grown up associating the Tom Clancy brand with video games rather than feature films. 

BoxOffice's Overseas Cumulative Forecast: $145 million

BoxOffice's Domestic Cumulative Forecast: $70 million

BoxOffice's Global Cumulative Forecast: $215 million

 

 

 

Tags: Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit

Comments
  • tOST said on January 17, 2014 02:01 PM

    "- Little competition from comparable genre films on the release slate might pay off big in action-friendly markets like Russia."

    I laughed very hard at this part.
    Do you even know, how the Russians are depicted in this movie? As usual - bad guys. The Russians won't rush to this movie into cinemas as they doing on other action movies. What you also hadn't researched, is that the Russians hate Tom Clancy, his books and movies, based on his books. Russian posters also mentioning his name, and this is big mistake and bad choice for distributors.

    And here's confirmation: based on early reports, "Jack Ryan" grossed in it's first day in Russia about $0.33 mln and will make for the first full weekend about 2 mln. It'll be less than "The Bourne Ultimatum" (2007) had in it's first weekend (2.57 mln) - it's a closest comparable result.

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