NORTH AMERICA: Studio Estimates: 'Captain America 2' ($41.4M) Edges Out 'Rio 2' ($39.0M) for First Place After Stronger Saturday Hold

on April 13, 2014

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By BoxOffice Staff

Sunday Update: After a softer than expected Saturday at the box office for Fox's Rio 2 (and most wide releases in general), Disney's Captain America: The Winter Soldier ultimately claimed first place this weekend with an estimated $41.398 million. The blockbuster superhero sequel from Marvel was down a reasonable 56 percent from last weekend's record-breaking April start. The second weekend percentage decline for Captain America: The Winter Solider was quite similar to the 57 percent Thor: The Dark World fell in its second weekend of release this past November. Going forward, The Winter Soldier is likely to start holding up better than The Dark World did, thanks in part to not having to deal with a new film as massive as The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was. Captain America: The Winter Soldier has grossed a strong $159.01 million in ten days, which places the film 9.6 percent ahead of the $145.097 million ten-day take of Thor: The Dark World.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier took in $11.9 million on Friday, increased 49 percent on Saturday to take in $17.78 million and is estimated to decrease 34 percent on Sunday to take in $11.72 million. IMAX grosses were responsible for $3.6 million of the film's overall grosses this weekend. The Winter Soldier has grossed $14.7 million to date in IMAX.

Rio 2 debuted in second with an estimated $39.0 million. The 3D computer animated sequel from Blue Sky Studios opened towards the lower end of pre-release expectations and nearly on par with the $39.23 million debut of 2011's Rio (which also opened the weekend before Easter weekend). Rio 2 opened 21 percent stronger than the recent $32.21 million start of fellow Fox computer animated release Mr. Peabody & Sherman. This weekend's performance represented a very solid start for Rio 2 and shows that family audiences are still in the mood for computer animated fare in general. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, Rio 2 generated the eighth largest opening weekend ever for the month of April.

Rio 2 opened with $12.0 million on Friday, increased a relatively soft 28 percent on Saturday to take in $15.4 million and is estimated to fall 25 percent on Sunday to take in $11.6 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 3.25 to 1. While that is low for a computer animated film at this time of year, Rio 2 is still highly likely to hold up well going forward thanks in part to the lack of high-profile animated releases entering the marketplace between now and June 13, when Fox releases How to Train Your Dragon 2. Rio 2 received a promising A rating on CinemaScore.

Relativity's Oculus debuted in third place with an estimated $12.0 million. The low-budget R-rated horror film opened in line with pre-release expectations. The opening weekend performance for Oculus was quite similar to the $12.29 million start of Relativity's House at the End of the Street back in September of 2012. Oculus opened with $4.94 million on Friday, fell 12 percent on Saturday to take in $4.35 million and is estimated to fall 38 percent on Sunday to gross $2.71 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.43 to 1. Oculus received a lackluster C rating on CinemaScore, which suggests the film isn't going over as well with moviegoers as it has with critics.

Off to a less impressive start this weekend was Lionsgate's Draft Day. The sports drama starring Kevin Costner debuted in fourth with an estimated $9.75 million. That was a bit below pre-release expectations and was 20 percent softer than the recent $12.24 million debut of Costner's previous vehicle 3 Days to Kill. Perhaps the film would have been a bit stronger out of the gate had it opened a bit closer to the upcoming NFL Draft. Draft Day opened with $3.57 million on Friday, increased a slim 7 percent on Saturday to gross $3.82 million and is estimated to fall 38 percent on Sunday to take in $2.36 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at a so-so 2.73 to 1. Draft Day received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore.

Fellow Lionsgate release Divergent currently rounds out this weekend's top five with an estimated $7.5 million, while Paramount's Noah follows closely behind in sixth with an estimated $7.45 million. Divergent had the far more impressive hold between the two films this weekend as it was down a respectable 42 percent, while Noah was down a sharp 56 percent. Clearly, audiences are responding better to Divergent than they are to Noah. Respective total grosses currently stand at $124.88 million for Divergent in 24 days and at $84.87 million for Noah in 17 days.

Saturday Update: Rio 2 hauled in $12 million yesterday, ahead of its predecessor's $10.35 million opening day three years ago. With that start, BoxOffice projects the animated sequel will bring in $45 million in a likely first place finish for its debut weekend. Word of mouth appears healthy with an 81 percent Flixster score as of Saturday morning. With no more major animated releases between now and June's How to Train Your Dragon 2, expect legs for Rio 2 to hold up very well.

Disney reports this morning that Captain America: The Winter Soldier grabbed $11.9 million on Friday, declining 68 percent from its opening day last week. Unfortunately, Friday night business dropped off from trends earlier in the day that indicated the film could ring up at least $1-2 million more yesterday. That said, BoxOffice projects a still-healthy $42 million sophomore frame for the hit Disney/Marvel sequel, which has now tallied $129.5 million domestically in 8 days. That's 9 percent ahead of the pace of Thor: The Dark World as the film continues to enjoy positive word of mouth.

Oculus is playing the role of upset among the weekend's other two newcomers. The Relativity horror pic earned a solid $4.94 million on Friday and is projected to tally $12.8 million this weekend. Positive reviews (for the horror genre), a lack of horror options in the market since January, and the crossover appeal added by Karen Gillan (of Doctor Who fame) and Katee Sackhoff (Battlestar Galactica) are all contributing to the film's appeal among genre fans. Early word of mouth looks questionable with a 63 percent Flixster score so far.

Draft Day grossed $3.58 million in its first day, slightly behind the $4 million opening day of Kevin Costner's previous 2014 flick, 3 Days to Kill. Reviews for the sports drama have been mixed, while word of mouth looks to be on the fence judging by Flixster's 71 percent score. Ultimately, releasing a football-centric movie outside of football season looks to have proven ill-timed. BoxOffice projects a $10.8 million frame.

Friday Update: Sources tell BoxOffice that Captain America: The Winter Soldier is on course to retain first place this weekend with an early projection of $14 million on its second Friday. From there, the well-received sequel could be looking at a sophomore frame of $48-50 million.

Rio 2 isn't starting off quietly, though. Sources report the animated sequel is looking at $11 million today and could net a $40 million weekend off that figure.

Oculus and Draft Day are battling for a disappointing runner-up spot among the weekend's newcomers. The horror flick is eyeing $3.5 million today, which would translate to roughly $8.5 million for the weekend depending on how well word of mouth can drive it. Horror titles are generally front-loaded, although the first weekend performance of April 2011's Insidious still gives Oculus some hope of a $9-10 million weekend.

Meanwhile, Kevin Costner starrer Draft Day is looking at $3 million today for an $8.5 million to $9 million opening weekend. Evening business could reasonably pick up, though, which still makes it a favorite to top Oculus for the weekend.

Tags: north-america, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Oculus, Draft Day, Rio 2

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