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'If I Stay' Making Waves on August 19, 2014

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By Alex Edghill

Tuesday Morning Update: If I Stay led all films on Monday with a massive 61,407 tweets, up from 27,402 tweets on Sunday and giving it one of the largest pre-release tweet days of the entire month of August. In addition its Facebbook like count is over 800,000 which is a very hefty number indeed. The film is aiming squarely at the same teen girl-centric demographic that The Fault In Our Stars capitalized on earlier in the Summer. Stars had 190,400 tweets and just over 3.5 million likes its Monday before release while The Mortal Instruments: City Of Bones had 1,840 tweets and 739,753 likes. It is the clear-cut favourite to win the weekend as of now but I don't see a massive breakout like Fault In Our Stars; $20 million range should be possible. 

Frank Miller's Sin City: A Dame To Kill For was a distant second amongst the new openers with 1,900 tweets on the day. Pretty ordinary number to be honest and with its franchise Facebook page having only 985k likes despite being in existence for over 10 years I'm not too optimistic about its potential. By comparison: 300: Rise Of An Empire had 6,507 tweets its Monday before release. The original opened to $29 million way back in April of 2005 before the creation of Twitter and when Facebook was in its infancy but I remember the buzz surrounding its highly stylized visuals and star studded cast created a lot of buzz in movie forums and articles at the time. 9 years later a lot of that seems to be missing and at this rate it might be lucky to hit mid-teens.

When The Game Stands Tall had 1,829 tweets and just over 150k likes on Monday, meaning that it grabbed last spot amongst the new openers. Sports films such as this will do best with older male audiences who often aren't captured well via Twitter and Facebook so this isn't necessarily a kiss of death. By comparison, Draft Day had 1,094 tweets and 71,754 likes its Monday before release while Trouble With The Curve had 1,199 tweets and 58,953 likes. The numbers actually are quite strong here in light of my comparisons and as such I believe teen millions and a head to head battle with Sin City 2 could be on the cards over the weekend for second spot amongst the new openers.  

Twitter Top 15 Movies for Monday August 18th

Rk Film Sun Mon Sun-Mon %
1 (+1) If I Stay 27,402 61,407 124.10%
2 (-1) Guardians of the Galaxy 28,484 26,659 -6.41%
3 (+22) No Good Deed (2014) 1,115 11,566 937.31%
4 (-1) The Expendables 3 9,416 8,478 -9.96%
5 (+55) Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb 198 7,371 3622.73%
6 (+3) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 3,950 6,185 56.58%
7 (+1) Maleficent 4,857 4,343 -10.58%
8 (-2) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) 5,591 3,537 -36.74%
9 (-5) Let's Be Cops 6,362 3,496 -45.05%
10 (-3) The Giver 5,478 3,401 -37.92%
11 (-1) Transformers: Age of Extinction 3,632 3,164 -12.89%
12 (-) Before I Go to Sleep 3,027 3,089 2.05%
13 (-) Avengers: Age of Ultron 2,628 3,077 17.09%
14 (-9) As Above/So Below 5,687 3,015 -46.98%
15 (-4) 22 Jump Street 3,168 2,906 -8.27%
18 (+9) Frank Miller's Sin City: A Dame To Kill For 989 1,900 92.11%
20 (+3) When the Game Stands Tall 1,261 1,829 45.04%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Actuals: 'Ninja Turtles' ($28.5M) and 'Guardians' ($25.1M) Hold off Newcomers 'Let’s Be Cops' ($17.8M), 'Expendables 3' ($15.9M) and 'The Giver' ($12.3M) on August 18, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was able to easily hold off three major newcomers this weekend to remain in first place with $28.52 million. In the process, Paramount's high-profile franchise re-launch zoomed past the $100 million domestic mark over the weekend. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was down a sharp, but understandable 57 percent from last weekend's debut. The film continues to exceed expectations in a very big way with $117.77 million through ten days of release. That places Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles an impressive 19.5 percent ahead of the $98.58 million ten-day take of 2009's G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra. With its initial fan rush-out now behind it, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will hope to stabilize going forward.

Also holding off the weekend's newcomers was Disney's Guardians of the Galaxy. The blockbuster sci-fi superhero adaptation from Marvel placed in second with $25.12 million. Guardians of the Galaxy was down 40 percent this weekend, which is an encouraging sign for the film going forward. Guardians of the Galaxy rocketed past the $200 million domestic milestone over the weekend and has grossed a stronger than expected $222.66 million in 17 days. Guardians of the Galaxy is currently running 11 percent ahead of the $200.50 million 17-day take of Captain America: The Winter Soldier earlier this year and will have no problem eventually surpassing the $259.75 million current total gross of The Winter Soldier to become the highest grossing release of 2014 thus far domestically.

While it debuted towards the lower end of expectations, Fox's Let's Be Cops was nonetheless the weekend's top new release with a third place take of $17.81 million. Given its Wednesday release date, it was impressive that the action-comedy topped both The Expendables 3 and The Giver over the weekend. Let's Be Cops is also performing well with its low production cost in mind. Let's Be Cops has grossed $26.22 million through five days of release. That gave the film a five-day to three-day ratio of 1.47 to 1 and places the film 21 percent behind the recent $33.31 million five-day start of Tammy. Let's Be Cops only received a so-so B rating on CinemaScore, but will still have a very solid chance of holding up well going forward due in part to the lack of new comedies entering the marketplace over the next several weeks.

Lionsgate's The Expendables 3 landed in fourth place with a disappointing debut of $15.88 million. The third installment of the ensemble action franchise starring Sylvester Stallone opened below its already scaled back expectations and 44.5 percent below the $28.59 million start of 2012's The Expendables 2. In addition to moviegoers clearly growing tired of the franchise, The Expendables 3 also appears to have been hurt by having been pirated online prior to its release. The Expendables 3 opened with $5.95 million on Friday, declined 4 percent on Saturday to take in $5.73 million and fell 27 percent on Sunday to gross $4.20 million. That placed the film's opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.67 to 1. The Expendables 3 did receive an encouraging A- rating on CinemaScore, but as the third installment of a franchise, audience reaction likely won't make a big difference for the film going forward.

The Giver rounded out the weekend's top five with a debut of $12.31 million. The young adult sci-fi adaptation from The Weinstein Company opened on the lower end of pre-release expectations. The film's opening weekend performance was similar to the $10.60 million start of The Host last year. The Giver took in $4.75 million on Friday, fell 6 percent on Saturday to gross $4.45 million and declined 30 percent on Sunday to gross $3.11 million. That gave the film an opening weekend to Friday ratio of 2.59 to 1. The Giver received a B+ rating on CinemaScore.

Holdovers Into the Storm and The Hundred-Foot Journey claimed sixth and seven place with respective takes of $7.89 million and $7.18 million. Warner's Into the Storm was down a significant 55 percent from last weekend and has grossed $31.51 million in ten days. Disney's The Hundred-Foot Journey was down a healthy 35 percent and has grossed $23.69 million over the same ten-day span. Both films are performing in line with their respective pre-release expectations thus far.

On the limited front, Boyhood took in an estimated $1.99 million from 771 locations to place in eleventh among all films, while Magic in the Moonlight took in $1.79 million from 964 locations to finish in 14th place. IFC Films' Boyhood has grossed an impressive $13.64 million to date, while Sony Pictures Classics' Magic in the Moonlight has grossed a soft $4.62 million so far.

'How To Train Your Dragon 2' Rides Chinese Debut to Cross $500M Mark; 'Guardians' Passes $400M; 'Turtles' Continues to Impress on August 17, 2014

image.jpgHow to Train Your Dragon 2 put up big numbers this weekend, taking advantage of a $25.9 million debut in China to complete a $37.7 million frame from 28 markets. This puts the Dragon sequel up to $366 million overseas and $537.2 million worldwide. The film is only days away from passing Rio 2 as the biggest animated release of 2014 overseas.

Guardians of the Galaxy grossed $33.1 million across 65 territories this weekend. The film has earned a total of $196.4 million overseas and $418.7 million worldwide, already surpassing the $371 million global cume of Captain America: The First Avenger. Two of the film's top overseas markets have already crossed the $30 million mark: the UK ($31.5m) and Russia ($30.4M). New openings this weekend included a $7.2 million bow from France and a $3 million premiere in Spain.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles adds another $25.6 million from its overseas roll out, reaching a $67.5 million overseas cume. A $6 million opening in Brazil was the highlight of the weekend, along with a strong $5.1 million hold from Russia. The film has grossed a total of $185.1 million worldwide.

Lucy earned $22 million this weekend after taking #1 debuts in Germany, Austria, Cyprus, Lebanon, Poland and German-Switzerland. The film has now grossed $61 million overseas and a total of $168.5 million worldwide.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes earned $16.5 million from 51 markets this weekend. The reboot sequel has now grossed a total of $337 million overseas and $538.8 million globally.

Transformers: Age of Extinction keeps on delivering overseas. The film posted an $8.4 million frame from 52 territories, making it the sixth highest grossing film of all time outside of North America with a $811.1 million cume. The film has grossed $1.05 billion worldwide.

Into the Storm took in $6.7 million this weekend, taking its overseas total up to $18.5 million. The natural disaster flick has grossed a total of $49.8 million worldwide.

Hercules delivers a $4.7 million weekend from 43 markets to reach an $80.1 million cume outside of North America. The film has grossed $148.2 million worldwide.

Sex Tape added $4.0 million from 36 markets this weekend, bringing its overseas cume to $33.1 million. The comedy has grossed $70.8 million worldwide.

NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Estimates: 'Ninja Turtles' ($28.4M) and 'Guardians' ($24.7M) Hold off Newcomers 'Let’s Be Cops' ($17.7M), 'Expendables 3' ($16.2M) and 'The Giver' ($12.8M) on August 16, 2014

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Sunday Update: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was able to easily hold off three major newcomers this weekend to remain in first place with an estimated $28.4 million. In the process, Paramount's high-profile franchise re-launch zoomed past the $100 million domestic mark over the weekend. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was down a sharp, but understandable 57 percent from last weekend's debut. The film continues to exceed expectations in a very big way with $117.64 million through ten days of release. That places Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles an impressive 19 percent ahead of the $98.58 million ten-day take of 2009's G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra. With its initial fan rush-out now behind it, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will hope to stabilize going forward.

Also holding off the weekend's newcomers was Disney's Guardians of the Galaxy. The blockbuster sci-fi superhero adaptation from Marvel placed in second with an estimated $24.74 million. Guardians of the Galaxy was down 41 percent this weekend, which is an encouraging sign for the film going forward. Guardians of the Galaxy rocketed past the $200 million domestic milestone over the weekend and has grossed a stronger than expected $222.28 million in 17 days. Guardians of the Galaxy is currently running 11 percent ahead of the $200.50 million 17-day take of Captain America: The Winter Soldier earlier this year and will have no problem eventually surpassing the $259.71 million current total gross of The Winter Soldier to become the highest grossing release of 2014 thus far domestically.

While it debuted towards the lower end of expectations, Fox's Let's Be Cops was nonetheless the weekend's top new release with an estimated third place take of $17.7 million. Given its Wednesday release date, it was impressive that the action-comedy topped both The Expendables 3 and The Giver over the weekend. Let's Be Cops is also performing well with its low production cost in mind. Let's Be Cops has grossed $26.11 million through five days of release. That gives the film a five-day to three-day ratio of 1.47 to 1 and places the film 22 percent behind the recent $33.31 million five-day start of Tammy. Let's Be Cops only received a so-so B rating on CinemaScore, but will still have a very solid chance of holding up well going forward due in part to the lack of new comedies entering the marketplace over the next several weeks.

Lionsgate's The Expendables 3 landed in fourth place with a disappointing estimated debut of $16.2 million. The third installment of the ensemble action franchise starring Sylvester Stallone opened below its already scaled back expectations and 43 percent below the $28.59 million start of 2012's The Expendables 2. In addition to moviegoers clearly growing tired of the franchise, The Expendables 3 also appears to have been hurt by having been pirated online prior to its release. The Expendables 3 opened with $5.93 million on Friday, declined 3 percent on Saturday to take in $5.72 million and is estimated to fall 20 percent on Sunday to gross $4.55 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.73 to 1. The Expendables 3 did receive an encouraging A- rating on CinemaScore, but as the third installment of a franchise, audience reaction likely won't make a big difference for the film going forward.

The Giver rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated debut of $12.76 million. The young adult sci-fi adaptation from The Weinstein Company opened on the lower end of pre-release expectations. The film's opening weekend performance was similar to the $10.60 million start of The Host last year. The Giver took in $4.75 million on Friday, fell 6 percent on Saturday to gross $4.45 million and is estimated to decline 20 percent on Sunday to gross $3.56 million. That gives the film an estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio of 2.69 to 1. The Giver received a B+ rating on CinemaScore.

Holdovers Into the Storm and The Hundred-Foot Journey claimed sixth and seven place with respective estimated takes of $7.72 million and $7.11 million. Warner's Into the Storm was down a significant 55 percent from last weekend and has grossed $31.34 million in ten days. Disney's The Hundred-Foot Journey was down a healthy 35 percent and has grossed $23.62 million over the same ten-day span. Both films are performing in line with their respective pre-release expectations thus far.

On the limited front, Boyhood took in an estimated $2.15 million from 771 locations to place in tenth among all films, while Magic in the Moonlight took in an estimated $1.88 million from 964 locations to finish in 14th place. IFC Films' Boyhood has grossed an impressive $13.80 million to date, while Sony Pictures Classics' Magic in the Moonlight has grossed a soft $4.71 million so far.

Saturday Update: Paramount reports that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles earned an estimated $7.92 million on Friday, a 69 percent drop from its opening day last weekend (in line with G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra's 68 percent drop). That brings the reboot's domestic haul up to $97.2 million--17 percent more than the 8-day gross of Cobra. BoxOffice projects a $25.5 million sophomore frame for the flick.

Guardians of the Galaxy continues to hold well at the start of its third weekend. The latest Disney/Marvel hit added $6.95 million yesterday, down a healthy 43.5 percent from last Friday. That pushed the film across the $200 million domestic threshold ($204.5 million) and sets the stage for a weekend around $24 million. Through 15 days of release, Guardians remains ahead of the pace of Transformers: Age of Extinction by 4 percent as it continues its march toward likely becoming the summer's top grossing film. Just as well, it leads Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the year's top film, by 11 percent through the same point in release.

The Expendables 3 got off to a rocky start with $5.88 million on opening day--44 percent less than its 2012 predecessor. BoxOffice projects a $16 million opening weekend from there. Early word of mouth is struggling with a 53 percent Flixster score.

While the disappointing Expendables 3 launch underscores the argument that pirated leaks of the movie impacted box office performance, it's important to remember that some amount of franchise fatigue was expected for the three-quel. With a projected opening weekend 44 percent lower than The Expendables 2, the drop lines up with other franchise dips upon hitting the three-film mark. For just a few examples, Transformers: Dark of the Moon dropped 19 percent from Revenge of the Fallen (or roughly 30-35 percent in actual ticket sales when adjusting for Moon's 3D prices), Kick-Ass 2 came in 33 percent under its predecessor's opening, and The Hangover Part III sank 54 percent from Part II's debut.

Let's Be Cops added $5.63 million on Friday, bringing its cume to $14.03 million in three days--27 percent behind the pace of 2008's Tropic Thunder. BoxOffice projects Cops will net $17.2 million over the weekend, giving it a 5-day opening around $25.6 million. The Flixster crowd has given the comedy an underwhelming 65 percent approval.

Last but not least, The Giver posted $4.74 million on opening day and may land around $11.85 million for the weekend. While past young adult flicks like The Mortal Instruments and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters similarly opened in August, they opted for Wednesday releases--making direct comps for The Giver somewhat scarce. As is the case with all of this weekend's newcomers, critics haven't been kind to the adaptation--however, it does boast the strongest Flixster score (72 percent) among the three new releases.

Check BoxOffice on Sunday for official studio estimates.

Friday Update: Sources report that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy are easily holding their ground atop the box office to start the weekend. No numbers have been made available for those two yet, but The Expendables 3 is off to a rocky start with a possible $6 million today for a $16.5 million weekend. Considering Thursday night's preview shows of $875k were fairly solid, these numbers could easily change as the night progresses.

Meanwhile, Let's Be Cops is slowing down following a healthy Wednesday bow. The comedy is pacing for $5 million today, which would send it to roughly $15.5 million for the 3-day frame and a $23.9 million 5-day bow. Fortunately for Fox, the comedy was produced for just $20 million.

The Giver isn't faring any better than its fellow newcomers. The adaptation of the popular 1993 novel is reportedly on track for an opening weekend between $10-12 million.

More as it comes...

NORTH AMERICA: 'Ninja Turtles' Returns to First on Thursday with $4.32M; 'Guardians of the Galaxy' Follows Closely Behind with $4.23M on August 15, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

After falling to second on Wednesday, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles moved back into first place on Thursday with $4.32 million. Paramount's high-profile franchise re-launch fell 16 percent from Wednesday. It should be noted that daily percentage declines were sharp in general on Thursday, in part from Lionsgate's The Expendables 3 and The Weinstein Company's The Giver both entering the marketplace on Thursday evening and in part from more and more schools now going back into session. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles exceeded expectations in a big way this week with a first place seven-day start of $89.24 million. That was an impressive 17 percent ahead of the $76.25 million seven-day take of 2009's G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra.

Disney's Guardians of the Galaxy was also up one spot over Wednesday to finish in a very close second on Thursday with $4.23 million. The blockbuster sci-fi superhero adaptation was down 13 percent from Wednesday and down 45 percent from last Thursday. The film trailed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles by just $96,190 for the day. Guardians of the Galaxy placed in second for the week with $63.15 million. That was down 53 percent from the film's opening week performance and brings the film's two-week total to $197.55 million. Guardians of the Galaxy is currently running 13 percent ahead of the $174.91 million two-week take of Captain America: The Winter Soldier earlier this year.

On the heels on Wednesday's first place debut, Let's Be Cops was down two spots and a reasonable 39 percent to place in third on Thursday with $3.20 million. The low-budget comedy from Fox has grossed a very solid $8.41 million in its first two days of release. That is in line with pre-release expectations and places the film 27 percent behind the $11.49 million two-day take of last year's We're the Millers. Let's Be Cops will hope to experience a big uptick in business over the weekend, in part from being a non-sequel.

The Hundred-Foot Journey held steady in fourth place with $1.165 million. The modestly budgeted drama from Disney and DreamWorks was down 16 percent from Wednesday. The Hundred-Foot Journey finished in fourth place for the week with a seven-day start of $16.51 million. The film is performing in line with its modest expectations and is running 22 percent ahead of the $13.53 million seven-day take of Million Dollar Arm earlier this year.

Warner's Into the Storm rounded out Thursday's top five with $1.163 million. The modestly budgeted disaster film trailed The Hundred-Foot Journey by a very slim $1,497 for the day. Into the Storm was down 14 percent from Wednesday's performance. Into the Storm performed in line with expectations this week with a third place start of $23.62 million over the seven-day frame.

Universal's Lucy placed in sixth with $0.87 million. The sci-fi action film starring Scarlett Johansson finished in fifth for the week with $14.19 million. Lucy was down 47 percent from the previous weekly frame and continues to exceed expectations with a three-week take of $102.22 million.


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