Total tweets for January 22nd Openers
Extraordinary Measures had a stellar Thursday, bringing in 1,046 tweets, up from Wednesday's 656. This gave it 2,507 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. By comparison, Law Abiding Citizen had 1,207 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 3,229 for the whole week. It had $7.5 million in receipts from 2,889 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 431. Men Who Stare At Goats had 1,270 on its Thursday and 3,249 for the full week. It managed $4.6 million on its first Friday from 2,443 theaters for a ratio of 706. Due to the similar theater count and target audience (albeit different genre) i'm going to go with an estimate of a ~700 ratio here and still to my Thursday expectation of a $3.5 million Friday and $9.5 million weekend.
Legion saw the biggest jump on Thursday as it scored 1,621 tweets, up 65% from Wednesday's 986. That gave it 3,890 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. In terms of comparisons the best will likely be the two week old Daybreakers which had 1,836 on its Thursday before release, and 5,130 for the whole week. It managed $5.9 million on its first Friday from 2,523 theaters for a Twitter ratio of 869. On paper this is tracking behind Daybreakers, since they are hitting the same target market, similar genre, and similar theatre count, yet Legion is a ways behind in total tweets. One fact will likely push its ratio down though for this analysis and that's it name. Film's with generic names have to be filtered in searches, no surprises, and as such to weed out countless false positives the Legion search string was "Legion bettany OR Palicki OR quaid OR tyrese OR see OR screening OR trailer OR watch OR movie". Did a great job at catching most tweets but no filter is 100% perfect. As such, I'm going to give it a slight bump and predict a $6 million Friday and $15.5 million weekend.
The Tooth Fairy had 640 tweets on Thursday, up from 445 on Tuesday. By comparison, A Christmas Carol had 1,721 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 4,768 for the full week. It made $8.96 million on its first Friday from 3,683 theaters for a Twitter ratio of 532. Planet 51 had 616 on its Thursday and 1,491 for the full week. It managed $3.15 million on its first Friday from 3,110 theaters for a ratio of 473. Lastly, The Spy Next Door had 623 on its Thursday and 1,452 for the full week. It managed $2.43 million on its first Friday from 2,924 theaters for a ratio of 599. Its ratio should likely come in at around ~350. As such, with these numbers in light, expect a $5.5 million Friday and $16.5 million for the weekend.
Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the final Twitter ratios.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.