Tweet counts and analysis for Tuesday, February 2nd.

Twitter Box Office Update - February 3rd, 2010

on February 03, 2010
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Total tweets for February 5th Openers

Tuesday saw Dear John continue its torrid pace on Twitter with 3,178 tweets. This lead to a very solid increase from Monday of 50%, with little signs of its slowing down as the week continues. To put the number into context, if I take out expanding films already in release (Paranormal Activity) and films that were opening on a Wednesday (This Is It), this Tuesday number is the 4th largest I've seen since September behind New Moon, Avatar and Where The Wild Things Are. No I don't expect it to gross more on opening day than any of them, but it's interesting to see when a film captivates the heart of Twitter and explodes. Continuing with my comparisons from yesterday, Jennifer's Body had 980 tweets on its Tuesday before release, and Whip It had 758.The film appears to be hitting not only the traditional romantic comedy market of 18-45 women, but also a mix of younger teens and older 35+ who have clearly also embraced it which points to a breakout. Tomorrow I'll take my usual early weekend prediction stand but as of right now these numbers are pointing to a $10 million+ opening day.

From Paris With Love had a comparatively underwhelming 530 tweets on Tuesday, up a smidge from yesterday's 509 tweets. It's not uncommon for films targeting more mature audiences to have a slow patch mid-week, but the relatively low tweet total and theatre count are working against it. In terms of comparisons, Surrogates had 450 tweets its Tuesday before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 697, Men Who Stare At Goats had 691, Armored had 162, and Edge of Darkness had 833. Its doing solid business, but there is no chance of a breakout here. Looks like upside of $5 million for its opening day, but check back tomorrow for our official estimates.

Check back tomorrow to see the Wednesday numbers and more comparisons.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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