Tweet counts and analysis for Wednesday, February 3rd.

Twitter Box Office Update - February 4th, 2010

on February 04, 2010
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Total tweets for February 5th Openers

Dear John declined slightly on Wednesday with 2,789 tweets, 12% down from its Tuesday tally of 3,178. A small decline on Wednesday is pretty common in the genre, and the overall number is so highly impressive this doesn't put a damper on my lofty expectations for its opening day. Even with the slight drop the Wednesday figure was good for #5 since last September (behind New Moon, Avatar , Where The Wild Things Are and 2012) if you weed out Wednesday openers and expanding limited releases. Awareness and buzz are all sky high, and my early week speculation of 12,000 tweets will likely become a reality by the end of Thursday. Expect a ratio in the region of 1,200 for a $10 million opening day, and $25 million for the full three day weekend. The mighty Avatar should see its reign of #1 weekends stopped here.

From Paris with Love showed signs of life on Wednesday with 806 tweets, up from 530 Tuesday. In terms of comparisons, Surrogates had 742 tweets its Wednesday before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 702, Men Who Stare at Goats had 793, Armored had 246, and Edge of Darkness had 1,291. It's tracking to come in right on the nose of my early estimate of 3,000 tweets, and with an expected ratio of ~700, look for a $4.5 million Friday and $12 million for the weekend.

Check back tomorrow to see the final tweet totals and predictions for the weekend.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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