Tweet counts and analysis for Thursday, February 4th.

Twitter Box Office Update - February 5th, 2010

on February 05, 2010
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Total tweets for January 29th Openers

Dear John brought the heat yet again on Thursday, bringing in 4,124 tweets, up from Wednesday's 2,789. This brought it right in line with my early week estimate and gave it 12,194 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. In terms of comparisons I'll stick with the two yardsticks I've been using: Jennifer's Body had 2,045 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 5,081 for the whole week. It had $2.8 million in receipts from 2,701 theaters on its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 1,815. Whip It had 1,921 on its Thursday and 4,684 for the full week. It managed $1.59 million on its first Friday from 1,720 theaters for a ratio of 2,955. Obviously these two films are not identical in appeal but they help to gauge the effect of young women on a film and its ratio. Dear John is opening in more theaters than both of these films, and will also have a far larger appeal to older audiences thanks to the novel it is based on. More adult-oriented romance films have typically come in with a ratio of 400-600, while ones skewing to younger audiences have come in at 1,800+. I'm going to split the gap and say Dear John will have a ratio of 1,200 and stick to my Wednesday prediction of a $10 million Friday. Expect $25 million for the full weekend.

From Paris With Love had 1,138 tweets on Thursday, up from Wednesday's 806. That gave it 2,983 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. By comparison, Law Abiding Citizen had 1,207 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 3,229 for the whole week. It had $7.5 million in receipts from 2,889 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 431. Surrogates had 1,418 on its Thursday and 3,062 for the full week. It managed $5.02 million on its first Friday from 2,951 theaters for a ratio of 609. Lastly, Edge of Darkness had 1,432 tweets on its Thursday of release and 4,101 for the full week. Its $5.6 million Friday from 3,066 theaters gave it a ratio of 725. Paris should see a ratio along the lines of ~725 also. I'm going to lower my sights slightly from yesterday and go with a prediction of $4 million Friday and $11.5 million for the full weekend.

Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: twitter, dear john, from paris with love
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