This upcoming weekend we have three new wide release openers in Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, Valentine's Day and The Wolfman. The Box Office should be on fire with these three high profile releases, and the still strong Avatar and Dear John to contend with. Records might be in store.
Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief was monstrous last week with 4,803 tweets referencing it. That's the 4th highest since last September after New Moon, Avatar and a film I'll soon discuss. Fans of the book are eating up the trailers and promotions and will no doubt drive its ratio up come Friday. Perhaps its best comparison will be The Vampire's Assistant, which got 938 tweets its pre-release week and a Friday ratio of 974. I'd say a 1,000 ratio here might also be in store and ~$25 million for its opening frame based on these early numbers.
Valentine's Day also zoomed last week with a whopping 5,037 tweets. It was the film I mentioned above that was #3 since September in terms of pre-week buzz. It should play nicely to younger and older audiences and a ratio in the region of Dear John's 884 should be in store. Dear John managed 2,599 tweets its pre-release week which means big things are in store here. These early numbers point to a ~$40 million weekend with upside.
Lastly, The Wolfman had 1,429 tweets last week. It is aiming for a much older male audience and as such will have trouble keeping up tweet-wise to the other two films. Given its target market it will no doubt be looking at a 600-800 ratio for its opening Friday. Law Abiding Citizen managed 902 tweets during the same week before release, and Sherlock Holmes raked in 3,383. My early money would be on a low $20s opening frame.
Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.