Preview of the wide openers for March 5th: Alice In Wonderland and Brooklyn's Finest.

Twitter Box Office Update - Upcoming Weekend March 5th, 2010

on February 28, 2010
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This is going to be a very busy week on Twitter movie-wise as one of the most highly anticipated films of the year for all demos open, i.e Alice In Wonderland. In addition, in an attempt to offer some viable counter-programming to the Alice Goliath, Overture will be releasing their crime drama Brooklyn's Finest

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Alice In Wonderland simply obliterated the competition on Twitter this week with a whopping 27,023 tweets. That's the second most pre-release week tweets after New Moon's 78,268. It appears to be strong with a wide range of people, both younger and older which is a great sign. In terms of comparisons: Where The Wild Things Are had 5,123 tweets its week before release, and Percy Jackson had 4,803. Obviously the film is going to be huge, but it will likely have a ratio to match. I'd expect its ratio to be sandwiched between Percy Jackson's 2,018 and New Moon's 5,171. I bring up New Moon again not because of genre or target audience but simply because it was the last major event movie to open on Twitter and had large amounts of spam, something Alice is contending with now. To put it into perspective, Avatar had only 29,979 tweets during its actual release week. It only had 8,036 tweets its week before. I'd say to perhaps look for a ~100,000 tweet week and a ~3,500 ratio. Should be a fun week!

Brooklyn's Finest had a solid week in the shadows with 1,784 tweets. The film is attempting to generate interest in older audiences, who have little Alice-desire. Notable comparisons include Armored which had 322 tweets in its week before release, and Edge of Darkness which had 1,168. In scanning tweet profile pictures and comments it seems to be generating most of its interest in women. This should drive its ratio higher than either of my two comparisons, as will the low theatre count which is estimated to be in the range of 1,800. It appears to be on course for a 5,000 tweets week which might see it land $4 - $5 million on next Friday.

Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

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The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: alice in wonderland, brooklyn's finest
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