Tweet counts and analysis for Thursday, March 4th.

Twitter Box Office Update - March 5th, 2010

on March 05, 2010
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Really I think the above chart says just about all that's needed for the release of Alice In Wonderland this weekend. It handily recorded the biggest day on Twitter for a film outside of New Moon since last September. It had a massive 124% jump to 39,765 tweets on Thursday, up from 1,743 on Wednesday. This gave it 83,958 for the full Monday to Thursday period, second only to New Moon's ridiculous total of 375,925 as the most talked about films on Twitter in the last 6 months. Where The Wild Things Are managed to score 8,290 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 20,684 for the whole week. It had $12 million in sales from 3,735 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 1,724. Percy Jackson and The Olympians had 7,654 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 19,722 for the whole week. It had $9.78 million in sales from 3,255 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 2,018.

The film has obviously engulfed Twitter and there was never any doubt that it wouldn't do well but the difficult task is to stick a yardstick in this number. In terms of ratios it will definitely be above Percy's 2,018 due to increased spam, and greater awareness of the character from all demographics. Like I said earlier in the week the upper limit of its ratio would indeed be New Moon's 5,000. This film doesn't have nearly as much spammers as when New Moon was around, nor does it have the fanatical followers which will bring its ratio down considerably. As such I'm going to go with my Wednesday estimate of $30 million and a 2,750 ratio for this Friday which should allow it to hit $82 million for the full weekend.

Not to be outdone, Brooklyn's Finest eclipsed the 2k tweet mark on Thursday. This gave it 5,622 for the full Monday to Thursday period, slightly above my Sunday projection of 5,000. There really has been no great comparison for the film due to its appeal to quite a few demographics, and that has been shown to great length this week as it really exploded. I'd expect a ratio of ~1,200 and $4.75 million Friday and $12.5 million for the three day frame.

Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend and follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets022602.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: alice in wonderland, brooklyn's finest
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