Tweet counts and analysis for Thursday, March 11th.

Twitter Box Office Update - March 12th, 2010

on March 12, 2010
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Green Zone again had a nice increase on Thursday as it rose to 1,324 tweets, up from 878 the previous day. That gave it 3,250 tweets for the entire week and brought it right in line with my Monday estimate of 3,000 to 3,200. The advertising push of the Studio definitely helped to generate more interest on Twitter as the week went on. Continuing the comparisons I have used this week: Surrogates managed to score 1,418 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 3,062 for the whole week. It had $5.02 million in sales from 2,951 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 609. Law Abiding Citizen had 1,207 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 3,229 for the whole week. It had $7.5 million in sales from 2,889 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 431. Lastly, Edge of Darkness managed to score 1,432 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 4,101 for the whole week. It had $5.66 million in sales from 3,066 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 725. Green Zone appears likely to fall somewhere inbetween these past performances and should be looking at a ~525 ratio for $6 million Friday and $17.5 million for the full weekend.

Our Family Wedding came in with 899 tweets on Thursday, driving its week tally to 2,294. This was slightly higher than my Monday estimate of 2,000 but still in the same ballpark. Leap Year had 505 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 1,401 for the whole week. It managed $3.32 million on its first Friday from 2,511 theaters for a Twitter ratio of 423. When In Rome had 796 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 1,971 for the whole week. It managed $4.38 million on its first Friday from 2,456 theaters for a Twitter ratio of 451. Like I said earlier in the week I think the low theatre count is going to push its ratio upwards quite a ways to around the ~750 mark, giving it $3 million for Friday and $8 million for the weekend.

Remember Me benefited from the Twilight: Eclipse trailer somewhat is it raked in 3,654 tweets on Thursday. This gave it 11,022 tweets for the week, almost exactly on the nose of my predicted 11,000 after Monday's numbers. Direct comparisons for the type of buzz the film is generating to the core of Twitter is hard to find. Twilight: New Moon was on a different planet altogether and not a useful comparison, Jennifer's Body and its Megan Fox fueled explosion is probably the closest I can come up with. That managed 5,081 tweets for its full week back in last September and managed to turn that into $2.80 million from 2,701 theaters on its first Friday, allowing for a ratio of 1815. After some thought I'm going to go ahead and drop my estimated ratio to 2,000 for this, and predict a $5.5 million Friday and $14.5 million for the weekend. The definite interest in the under 25 female audience is massive, and hard to ignore.

Lastly, She's Out of My League cracked the 1,000 tweet mark for the first time on Twitter as it came in with 1,089. This gave it 2,695 tweets for the full week, in line with my Monday estimated total of 2,500. The comparisons drawn for Our Family Wedding are also valid here though I do think the movie will skew quite young which should drive it up somewhat. Expect a ratio in the region of ~700 and a Friday take of $3.75 million, $10.5 million for the full weekend.

Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend and follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets030510.gifThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: green zone, our family wedding, remember me, she's out of my league
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