Tweet counts and analysis for Thursday, March 18th.

Twitter Box Office Update - March 19th, 2010

on March 19, 2010
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mar03192010.jpgDiary Of A Wimpy Kid scored 725 tweets on Thursday, up from 494 the previous day. That gave it 1,859 tweets for the entire week, slightly below my Monday estimate of 2,000 to 2,200. Continuing the comparisons I have used this week: The Spy Next Door managed to score 623 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 1,452 for the whole week. It had $2.43 million in sales from 2,924 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 599. In addition, The Tooth Fairy had 640 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 1,720 for the whole week. It had $3.5 million in sales from 3,344 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 491. I think Wimpy Kid is going to perform quite similarly to Tooth Fairy and come in with a ~475 ratio, as such look for a $3.9 million Friday and $13.5 million for the full weekend.

Repo Men landed 1,210 tweets on Thursday, driving its week tally to 3,049, right on the lower end of my Monday estimate of 3,000 to 3,500. Thursday's total also gave it the highest of the openers for the 3rd time this week. This film is a perfect example of what following Twitter for 6 months now has afforded, an ability to use past films as a benchmark to discount buzz volume by genre and audience. Buzz does not always equal Box Office gold, buzz bye genre compared to similar films correlated to past Box Office earnings equals prediction gold. Sci Fi plus low theater count (relatively anyway) and poor negative tweets all point to a ratio in the ~1,000 range. Expect a $2.7 million Friday and $7.5 million for the weekend.

Lastly, The Bounty Hunter had 1,016 tweets on Thursday, up from 917 the day before. This ended up being a ways under my Monday estimate of 3,500 as the film didn't have as strong of a mid-week as I had imagined. By comparison, Couples Retreat had 1,217 tweets on its Thursday before release. Couples had 3,710 tweets for the week and a ratio of 301 for a Friday tally of $12.33 million. Expect The Bounty Hunter to be slightly higher at around the ~350 mark which should afford it a $9 million Friday and $26.5 million for the three day weekend.

Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend and follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets031210.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: s Finest, Green Zone, Remember Me, The Bounty Hunter, Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Repo Men, Hot Tub Time Machine, How to Train Your Dragon, The Last Song, Clash of the Titans, Tyler Perry, repo men, the bounty hunter
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