Tweet counts and analysis for Thursday, March 25th.

Twitter Box Office Update - March 26th, 2010

on March 26, 2010
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mar03262010.jpgHot Tub Time Machine basically erupted on Twitter yesterday with a whopping 3,245 tweets. That was up significantly from Wednesday's 1,834, giving it 8,122 tweets for the full week, right on track with my estimate of 8,000 back on Monday. While the number is very impressive, there are numerous RTs, jokes, cultural references, spam which are fueling it to these heights. These things should drive its ratio up to the ~1,300 range, which should allow the film to hit ~$6 million for Friday and $17.5 million for the full weekend.

How To Train You Dragon also took flight on Thursday as it secured 2,433 tweets. This marks the second biggest Thursday by an animated film in the past 6 months behind only the Alvin sequel which had 2,867. Its full week tally came in at 6,999, significantly better than my Monday estimate of 6,000. The comparison I think which will most indicate what we might see here is A Christmas Carol. That film managed to secure 4,768 tweets during its release week, and turned a 532 ratio to give it $8.96 million on its first Friday. I think we could see a ratio here of ~550 which will mean a Friday of $12.75 million and $47 million for the full weekend.

Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend and follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets031910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: hot tub time machine, how to train your dragon
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