Oceans ran rampant on Thursday with 3,176 tweets. Not a surprise considering it opened on Thursday and it was Earth Day, pretty much a perfect storm for it. Its getting some great reviews, and currently stands at 50% positive for the full week which is miles above most other films. In fact, only Kick Ass is ahead of it (with just over 60%) positive. This bodes well for its legs this weekend. The Thursday opening really throws the ratio out of whack but expect a $2.75 million Friday.
The Back-up Plan really finished well on Thursday with a big 2,134 tweets. This gave it 5,046 tweets for the week, way above my early estimates on Sunday. By comparison, Death At A Funeral had 1,621 tweets on its Thursday before release and an almost identical tweet total. Couple things here though, the film plays much better to the young female core of Twitter which will no doubt hike its ratio, in addition, this is the first romantic comedy targeted at younger audiences I've tracked with such a simple name to search for, something which will no doubt boost its ratio. As such I'm going to raise its ratio estimate up to 1,200 and a $4.15 million Friday, $12 million weekend.
Lastly, The Losers continued to flounder as it managed only 841 tweets on Thursday, giving it 2,338 for the week. By comparison Green Zone had 1,324 tweets its Thursday before release, and 3,250 for the full week. Armored had 453 Thursday and 1,054 for the full week. It came in at 25% positive, 6% negative for the week (Oceans was 50% positive, 3% negative, The Back-up Plan was 26% positive, 4% negative) which are also far from stellar. Now the tweet positive and negative percentages is a new stat I have at my disposal for this week which means I don't have empirical evidence as yet that it is correlated to ratio, just a hunch. I'm going to go ahead and predict a 500 ratio here, and $4.6 million Friday, $12.5 million for the full weekend.
Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend and follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.
Tweet counts and analysis for Thursday, April 22nd.