Two new wide releases open this upcoming week at the Box Office: A
Nightmare On Elm Street and Furry Vengeance.
A Nightmare On Elm Street had 4,293 tweets on its lead-up frame last week. That's a massive number, by far the most I've seen for a horror since last September. By comparison, The Crazies had 2,122 tweets its week before release, Shutter Island had 3,594, and Saw VI had 1,392. There is no question that its ratio is going to be above 1,000 given the genre and appeal of the film to the Twitter core, which are quite horror-starved of late. I'm also using a pretty basic search string of "A Nightmare On Elm Street" which will grab a huge percentage of the relevant tweets. All of this points to a ratio of ~1,250. With an expected tweet count in the region of 20,000+, an opening day in the mid to high teen millions should be possible.
Furry Vengeance had 948 tweets last week in its lead-up frame. By comparison, The Spy Next Door had 376 tweets its week before release, and The Tooth Fairy had 1,247. The film came in at 18% negative for the week which is pretty high, and roughly 20% positive which is a ways below average (usually around 25%), especially for its genre. Nightmare On Elm Street by comparison was 22% positive / 15% negative, not that reviews are going to be a huge addition or subtraction for it since its audience is pretty much inbuilt. With this in mind Vengeance should come in with a ratio of 600-700 from 2,000 - 2,500 tweets. ~$3 million Friday might be in store.
Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.