Total tweets for April 30th Openers
A Nightmare On Elm Street had 4,304 tweets on Wednesday, or 11.8% of the total Twitter buzz for all films opening in the next 4 months. By comparison, The Crazies had 1,068 tweets its Wednesday before release, Shutter Island had 3,687, and Saw VI had 1,926. Of those 4,304 tweets, 875 were positive (20.33%) and 426 negative (9.90%). It did very well on Wednesday and hit my expected 4,000 tweet mark. Expect fireworks today as it should likely come in upwards of 8,000 tweets for the day alone. The online buzz has been very solid here and the market appears to be eating it up after a definite void in gore at the Box Office in recent weeks. Expect its total tweet number to come in at around 19,000, and with a predicted ratio of ~1,200 we should see a $16 million Friday and $39 million for the weekend.
Surprise, but Furry Vengeance again struggled on Wednesday with only 397 tweets, or put another way only 1.10% of the total Twitter buzz for all films opening in the next 4 months. By comparison, The Spy Next Door had 342 tweets its Wednesday before release, and The Tooth Fairy had 445. Of those 397 tweets it had yesterday, 54 were positive (13.60%) and 38 negative (9.57%). The film is appealing to a very young crowd yes, so these total tweet numbers are not a complete kiss of death but it makes it very clear that this is not going to break into double digits. At this point it should hit about 1,600 tweets by the end of day today and with an expected ratio of 575 it should be on course for $2.75 million on Friday and $8.5 million for the weekend.
Check back tomorrow to see the Thursday numbers and the final BoxOffice.com predictions. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.