Tweet counts and analysis for Wednesday, May 5th.

Twitter Box Office Update - May 6th, 2010

on May 06, 2010
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Total tweets for May 7th Openers

upcoming050710.jpgIron Man 2 racked up another 20,339 tweets on Wednesday, or 42.6% of all buzz on Twitter for wide-release films opening in the next 4 months. By comparison, The Twilight Saga: New Moon had 72,431 tweets its Wednesday before release, and Alice In Wonderland had 17,743. Really the film keeps me guessing to say the least. There is no denying that it will be huge but its expansion this week is hardly what I would have expected given my last 9 months of research. All I can theorize is that its foreign openings really boosted its early buzz which frontloaded its number. Week's ago I had posted that I thought its ratio would be 1,500, but I then second guessed myself due to all the prerelease hype and massive numbers last week. However, as it turns out that might be not far from where we end up. If I look up other action blockbusters such as 2012, Avatar or Clash of the Titans they came in with ratios of 676, 1110, and 824 respectively. While I have no doubt this film will surpass those ratios due to the increased hype with being the first big summer actioner, being a sequel and having more of an appeal to all quadrants, perhaps 1,500 would indeed be a more realistic number.

Tweet ratings have remained largely positive (25.06% positive and 5.34% negative yesterday) which is a great sign and it has been soaking up ~50% of all upcoming movie buzz for Summer openers (on a sidenote, yesterday it accounted for a seemingly low 42% compared to other days but that was in large part due to the Machete clip which generated over 5,000 tweets). Look for it to end the week with 100,000 tweets, which when paired with a ratio of 1,500 should give it ~$67 million for Friday and $153 million for the 3 day weekend.

Check back tomorrow to see the Thursday numbers and my final predictions. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets043010.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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